Intro/Outro (00:03):
Welcome to Supply Chain. Now the voice of global supply chain supply chain now focuses on the best in the business for our worldwide audience, the people, the technologies, the best practices, and today’s critical issues, the challenges and opportunities. Stay tuned to hear from Those Making Global Business happen right here on supply chain now.
Scott Luton (00:32):
Hey, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you are, Scott Luton, Greg White with you here on Supply Chain. Now welcome to today’s live stream, Gregory. How you doing today?
Greg White (00:42):
I’m doing well. How are you?
Scott Luton (00:43):
I’m doing wonderful. It feels like it’s holiday weather out there, so it’s got a little crisp in the air.
Greg White (00:49):
It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas.
Scott Luton (00:52):
There you go. Mad. That is nice. Nice.
Greg White (00:54):
All that’s all you get.
Scott Luton (00:56):
All right. Well maybe the follow on concert this Friday. Maybe it’s 7:00 PM Eastern Time. Come join Greg White live in concert. But hey, things are going good though. Big show here today, Greg. Today is the last buzz of the year. What a crazy year, huh?
Greg White (01:09):
For you maybe <laugh>.
Scott Luton (01:11):
Oh,
Greg White (01:12):
The last Long Air Buzz.
Scott Luton (01:14):
Well, <laugh>. Well, folks, you’re in the right place if you have been joining us regularly here on Mondays at 12 in Eastern Time. Thank you. And if you’re new to the buzz and all that we cover here today, welcome. And we want to hear from you throughout the show. So we’re gonna be talking about a variety of news and developments across global business. And Greg, if anyone out there is listening to our replay, which we usually drop on Fridays, what would you encourage ’em to do? Greg,
Greg White (01:41):
Hit that bell and hit that subscribe button on YouTube or follow us on your favorite podcasting channel device, whatever.
Scott Luton (01:50):
I’m gonna go with it. Yeah, I am gonna go with it. We think
Greg White (01:53):
About that. <laugh>, I like YouTube. We put it, you can see that I put a lot of effort into my outfits, so I think people should see this.
Scott Luton (02:02):
We put the ties away a long time ago, didn’t we, Greg? And thankfully, yes. All right, Greg, we got, let’s see here, four stories to get into. Yeah. And I think one of the stories we’re gonna start with is probably got everybody’s eyes and ears and attention. And of course that is what is going on over in the Red Sea, right? Yeah. So in the last few days, we’ve seen a variety of companies pause or shipping through this critical waterway due to attacks on vessels by Hhy rebels. So far, evergreen, Maersk, MSC, Hapag Lloyd and British Petroleum BP have all paused any shipping activity through the Red Sea, including that choke point that is the Bob Almond Strait, also known as the Gate of Tears. Yeah. And some of these vessels, Greg, as you know, have been rerouted all the way down and around the Cape of Good Hope, adding tons of time and shipping costs there. So Greg, I’d love to get your take here on what we’re seeing and how long do you think it’s gonna last. So, who knows?
Greg White (03:01):
This is an effort by the HTI Rebels of Yemen, which they effectively run the country, heavily supported by Iran in protest of what’s going on between Israel and the Palestinians in Gaza. And at first, these were only attacks on ships bound for Israel, but it has since expanded, including an attack on a US warship laughable that shot down all 14 of the drones that were headed towards it and shot down another drone headed for a merchant ship. I mean, this is not a joke. They have actually hit some of these ships with cruise missiles and with drone attacks. These are one-way drones that are basically kamikaze drones to attack these ships. And these companies, you know, rather than potentially lose a ship or all of the shipment, you have chosen to go around this area. And this isn’t, you know, this is an area that’s often, let’s just say contested. And you know, it’s an area where piracy is common as well, at least in that sort of general area. Not that specific stray, but that general area is, is also rife with piracy. Mm-Hmm. As you know, a lot of these rebel groups try to fund themselves by stealing things. It’s uh, one of those things we would call a disruption in supply chain, right,
Scott Luton (04:11):
<laugh>. That’s right. They keep on coming.
Greg White (04:13):
Yeah. And I think this continues until we do what we should about Iran, which will never happen. So it continues forever.
Scott Luton (04:21):
Yeah, man. Well, we’re all hoping, of course, and praying that the region can find at least a temporary moment of peace based on what we’ve seen over the last three or four weeks. It’s just been, some of the stories that come out of the Middle East have been heartbreaking. So, but that aside, these disruptions will keep on coming. And of course that’s our role, our job to navigate all these disruptions that, uh, are just as certain as death and taxes to keep going back to the Benjamin Franklin quote there. Alright, so second story here. Some folks are starting to wonder, will Macy’s follow the path of Sears or Bed Bath and Beyond or other retailers? Great read here by our friends at Retail Dive. As many analysts agree that Macy’s is more and more in need of a company turnaround in transformation. So get this Global Data Managing director, Neil Saunders was quoted in the article as saying quote, Macy’s struggles with the fundamentals of retailing and its recent sales performance underlines that it continues to lose market share and relevance in an increasingly competitive market end quote.
Scott Luton (05:22):
So after selling some of its flagship stores, Macy’s still runs about 722 store locations and owns Greg 316 of them kind of outright, including the valuable real estate they sit on. Some retail analysts are wondering if Macy’s will consider next steps such as close a bunch more stores. I think they’ve closed about 170 locations since 2016, or get created with all the real estate that the company owns, which Sears tried to do, or maybe even take the company private. So Greg, I cannot wait to hear your take on what Macy’s continues to persevere and try to fight through.
Greg White (05:57):
Yeah, Macy’s continues to persevere as one of the worst run retailers in the history of retail back in the 18 hundreds. They were really very good <laugh> since, you know, the last several years they’ve gone bankrupt multiple times. They’ve been on the edge of oblivion multiple times. Each time they get bailed out because the power of the brand is so substantial. And I think frankly, $8.5 billion, which I think is the latest offer to take them private for some people isn’t that much. Just so their kids and grandkids can go to the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade. But this is a horribly run organization. Their merchandising is terrible. It’s funny, I was just looking at, they try to position themselves as a premier retailer, like a Nordstrom or Neiman Marcus, but they have all the sort of middle tier brands. So they still want to be the Macy’s they used to be.
Greg White (06:47):
And they’re merchandising the product that they have just doesn’t support that they should make a decision to either sell Premier Brands or lose the premier label and just become kind of a step above target, which is really what they are at this point. So, and that’s okay. Frankly, I think there’s a space in the marketplace for that. But they’re mismarketing that and it’s to their detriment, no doubt. Yeah. I like Gary’s <laugh>, Gary’s assessment, the McDonald’s of retailers. It’s a hodgepodge of merchandising. It always has been. And periodically you can make it work with promotion. They use a bunch of brands that you literally cannot sell for full price brands that still exist that 20, 25, 30 years ago were meaningful. Tommy Hilfiger is a good example of that. But you know, those are all brands that are just licensed now, right? There’s no real designer behind that.
Greg White (07:37):
People are just licensing the label and slapping it on whatever products they wanna put on. So that’s okay. It’s just you have to market to your market. And you know, in Harold Square, I don’t think people are used to buying Target esque kind of products, right? Mm-Hmm. But yeah, they have routinely done this. It’s funny, when we decided we’d do this article, I started digging around to try and figure out how many times Macy’s has been bankrupt. Okay? And I can’t get beyond three or four, all of which are in our lifetime or actually much less than our lifetime. So they’ve been routinely poorly managed. It’s a pretty difficult solution because the real estate is valuable, but it’s also a huge burden on their balance sheet. Hmm. So there’s a financial answer here, and it’s probably gonna do with divesting of either the retail operations or of the real estate and then leasing it back.
Scott Luton (08:29):
Hmm. Options. Options. By going back to your, one of your central comments there, make a decision and commit. You can’t be all things, all persons out there, right
Greg White (08:37):
Greg? It’s a difficult position to be in because they’re always riding the razor’s edge. It seems like, Scott, it was less than four years ago, we were talking about them. What? Asking employees to take a pay cut or something like that because of tight funding, right? Back in 2020, they decided they were gonna close 25% of their a hundred hundred 25 stores. And even prior to that, they’d had some challenges back in 2016. So they’ve been swirling the drain for quite some time now and really just need to jettison the current management, restructure the company, and then figure out what to do from there. Yep.
Scott Luton (09:11):
Well, we’ll keep our finger on the pulse and see what direction they go in.
Greg White (09:14):
What do you call the parade though, if it’s not the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade? I mean, really, right. Truthfully, no matter how terrible this organization is, I’m thankful that companies keep coming in and trying to revive it. Yes. And restructure it so we know what to call the Thanksgiving Day parade.
Scott Luton (09:32):
Right. <laugh> amongst other reasons.
Greg White (09:34):
To give you an idea, this is literally the company, okay? That took America off the barter system for retail. This is the kind of innovation that they used to do. Took America off the barter system for retail, invented the retail, Santa invented decorating your windows for Christmas season, right? Invented the Thanksgiving Day parade. Their marketing has been genius. Rh Macy, one of the most visionary marketers of all time, right? The founder of this company is one of the people who founded NRF, the National Retail Federation, because Macy’s, gimbals and Bloomingdale’s used to get around, get together after Christmas, have a few cold beverages, and talk about what the season went like and ideate on how they might do better as individuals or collective retailers in New York City. This was a company of innovators that’s lost that brand tragically, unfortunately. But gotta keep ’em around,
Scott Luton (10:27):
Right? So that square that you mentioned, Greg, that’s that store there. What was the name of that square you mentioned?
Greg White (10:33):
Harold. H-E-R-A-L-D Square. Harold Square.
Scott Luton (10:36):
So folks, if, if you’re watching us here, that’s what this image is from. And if you see the big old star that Macy’s known for, a lot of times it’s a red star. Well, Greg mentioned Rh Macy, that star comes from a tattoo that Rh Macy had before he got into retail. One of the things he did was, I think it was whaling, it was fishing, I think it was in particular whaling. And he got a red tattoo and that’s where the star for Macy’s came from. But as Greg mentioned, incredible innovator. He also, Greg, to add on to that list, you just shared the idea of, of course, outstanding customer service, but in particular trying to feed customers while they’re in store to keep ’em longer. That was one of their innovations at Macy’s.
Greg White (11:15):
So many, he basically invented tailored clothes in the US anyway. Yep. Roland Hussy, Macy one of the greatest retailers of all time.
Scott Luton (11:24):
Agreed. Born in Nantucket, Massachusetts. Died in Paris, France. Okay. Greg. We’ll need to do like a greatest hits look back of 2023 at some point. But yeah, we’re sharing a couple anecdotally with y’all here today, because this webinar, speaking retailers, right? Big old retailers, like with Macy’s, big old, well Supply Pike, big old. That’s a highly scientific qualification there it
Greg White (11:47):
Is.
Scott Luton (11:48):
<laugh>. So Supply Pike has been doing really interesting work out there. They work with a variety of companies that do big business with retailers like Walmart and Amazon and Target and others. And they joined us a few months back to share some of the ways that you can get paid but also get better. Mm-Hmm. So you can make life easier when supplying the retail behemoths. So in this webinar we did back in September, we focused mostly on how to work better with Walmart and Greg, one of my favorite parts of this webinar, and it sounds so obvious, but it was just one of those eureka moments that stared you right in the face. You know, Walmart and all those big old retailers out there, they want you to perform well. They don’t want to have to hit you over to head with fee after fee. They want reliable suppliers that are successful and profitable, right,
Greg White (12:32):
Greg? They do. And you know, Walmart, let us not forget, is still the largest retailer on the planet, this planet Earth. We don’t know about other planets yet, but we know they’re the biggest on Mars. ’cause nobody’s on Mars, but they’re biggest retailer on the planet. And their e-commerce is growing faster than anyone else on the planet, faster than Amazon, faster than Alibaba. Now they’re all much, much larger, of course. But recall a few years ago, pre Covid, they bought jet.com, which was an up and coming retail e-com platform marketplace to challenge Amazon. And no one or no one is more equipped to challenge Amazon than Walmart. They are today’s retail innovators and there’s a lot of power in being networked into their marketplace. Well
Scott Luton (13:22):
Said.
Greg White (13:22):
And especially in this economy because more and more people are starting to shop at Walmart because of the economic conditions in the states. A lot of people are moving to Walmart because of not just the perception of low prices, which is true, but of the reality of low prices and frankly the efficiency of their supply chain. Yep. We’ve talked to some of Walmart’s execs about that.
Scott Luton (13:43):
Well said Greg, we sure have doing some really cool innovative things. And I gotta tell you, as a regular customer, I pop in there once a week, once every couple weeks. I think your customer service is getting better. I really do.
Greg White (13:54):
Well, the scenery in the stores is hilarious. I mean, what you see in the stores, we’ve all seen whatever of Walmart picks of Walmart or whatever they call that. It’s kind of a free for all in there. But I’ll tell you what, they do have a lot of stuff. I mean, they are probably, you know, we talked about whether Macy’s would go the way of Bed Bath and beyond. I mean, you can buy everything you could have bought at Bed Bath and Beyond in a Walmart store. And I say that as a former Walmart hater, right? I hated what they did to the landscape when they would come in and put in one of those a hundred thousand foot stores and all that sort of thing. But the utility of of a retailer like Walmart is undeniable. Their ability to innovate and to bring retail to places where it has not been previously, and to bring affordability to places that truly need it or desire it. It’s not that infrequent that you see a Mercedes or two parked outside of a Walmart store these days. Honestly. That’s true. So they are a force to be reckoned with and a a great leverage point if you’ve got a product that you want to get into. Retail.
Scott Luton (14:55):
Excellent points there, Greg. And of course all those big successful retailers like a Walmart, depend on their suppliers. Check out this. If you’re interested in this kind of stuff, you interested in optimizing your performance, avoiding fees, getting sustainably better, getting paid now while you’re getting better, check out this webinar on demand from September. Okay, Greg. Moving right along our third story, we’re gonna have a little fun with our fourth story. So y’all stick around. We’re gonna be talking adult beverages and New Year’s Eve coming up for our fourth story. But before we do there, we gotta do our homework here on this third story, which is all about newly released manufacturing industry data for November. Now, Greg, stick with me here. Mm-Hmm. <affirmative>, you know, I can’t handle more than a couple decimal points, so I’m gonna try not to lose myself here. According to the Federal Reserve manufacturing output in the US Rose 0.3% last month, November, which just missed a 0.4% increase that many economists thought the sector would hit a big chunk of the gain was the automotive industry getting back to normal after the highly disruptive labor strikes.
Scott Luton (15:56):
In fact, if you take motor vehicles and parts out of the equation for the November numbers here in the states, the US manufacturing industry decreased 0.2% in year over year numbers. Overall factor of production is down 0.8% in November, 2023 versus November, 2022. But there’s a little bit of good news, Greg, A little bit of good news if you go looking for it. A few specific markets have shown strength and boosts in production. They are computer and electronic products, aerospace, communications, equipment, semiconductors, which probably an obvious one for many and mining to name a few. Now of course, Greg, we’ve talked about it, we’ve got our eye on it. A lot of business leaders out there in the manufacturing industry and elsewhere are keeping a close eye on the potential for the Fed to roll back some of those interest rates hikes in 2024. We’ll see. But Greg, your thoughts on what we’re seeing out across manufacturing?
Greg White (16:48):
Yeah, well, you know, the, like you said, the underlying trend is still softening, right? And automotive manufacturing isn’t questionably going through a peak because they have pent up demand and pent up production because of these strikes. So once that levels out, I don’t know what that will mean for manufacturing generally, but it’s unquestionable that the economy is slowing and consumers are tightening their belts. So, you know, I don’t know about manufacturing in total. I feel like that’s going to slow. I feel like automotive could lift that up because it was so hard to get a car for so long. And banks are holding back on selling the masses of repos that they have, from what I’m hearing from a lot of dealers. So there are a lot of used cars that are not on the market because the banks wanna wait until their fiscal year is over before they dump all these dead assets on the marketplace and crush their stock prices.
Greg White (17:43):
I don’t know what that will mean, but car prices already starting to come down, at least they’re negotiable again. So the market is filling back up there. And you know, as is typical, we talk about the whiplash effect a lot in supply chain. As is typical, the automotive companies will get their production running again just in time for a downturn or you know, a slow down at least. So I’m concerned from that standpoint, but I think there’s a lot of necessity in what’s coming. And we don’t know what the feds will do because the feds don’t know what they will do. One fed president says four reductions next year, one says two, one or two or three say wait and see, we haven’t seen inflation recede yet. They keep representing it like it’s receding. The pace of growth of inflation is slowing, but inflation is not receding yet.
Greg White (18:34):
We have not seen prices turn down yet, and we got a little bit higher bump than, you know, last month than we expected. So there’s just a lot of cross signals. Everybody’s got a, an opinion. I saw literally opinion, Scott, from different investment banks, the s and p 500 as low as 3,300 at the end of next year and as high as 5,800. That is a pretty big delta between people with equivalent capability to analyze the stock market. Wow. And you know, a lot of that is dependent on what their take is on the impact of rate hikes and whether those are built in and whether the economy will slow slowly or slow rapidly or even begin to slow. And part of the challenge is because as inflation continues to raise prices, even as consumer demand slows, it doesn’t slow the overall growth of the economy as rapidly because prices continue to rise.
Greg White (19:33):
So I think you have to look at unit sales as well as dollar sales to determine what the pace of the consumer is out there to determine what will happen along with all of those other factors. I hope everybody is as confused as I meant for that to be <laugh>, because this is what economists go through and this is what investors go through and this is what the federal bank goes through to try and analyze all this. And you can see where there are so many inputs, it’s very, very difficult to determine. But in the end, as I always say, the supply chain and I would argue the economy begins and ends with the consumer. So as goes the consumer. So we’ll go manufacturing, so we’ll go pricing EG inflation and so will go the economy.
Scott Luton (20:17):
So Greg, all of that to our final story of the, I told y’all we’re gonna have a little fun, I think and hopefully not make too many people sick with this fourth story because you know, we’ve got New Year’s Eve coming up, Greg and many folks, perhaps all the amateurs though, I’m just gonna put that out there, Greg. All the amateurs maybe are gonna be stocking up on their favorite adult beverages to celebrate the holidays. Yeah. Now there’s gonna be a unique addition to the wealth of choices to select from in this interesting collab, PepsiCo and Spirits maker empirical teamed up to produce a new spirit that tastes like, hang on a minute, is this right? Doritos Nacho cheese Dip. Wow. In fact, empiric Rico’s website says new beverage captures quote all the indulgent flavors of your favorite nacho cheese in liquid form in quote. But Greg, it ain’t cheap like Taco Bell is, it’s gonna set you back 65 bucks for a seven 50 milliliter bottle of a nacho cheese flavored spirit. So Greg, question for you, would you be up for a shot of this or is that a hard no. Your thoughts?
Greg White (21:22):
I despise flavored booze. I don’t like fireball <laugh>, I don’t like flavored vodkas or whiskeys. Well, I shouldn’t say that Scott, because there is only one flavored booze that I like and that is moonshine, what they call Lady shine, which I’m not afraid to explore my feminine <laugh> flavored moonshine because moonshine is basically like drinking, rubbing alcohol to me and having a flavor in there makes it consumable. So I love apple pie, right? There are a few others. Granddaddy Mimms, you know, we your father-in-Law. We’ve had may have had a few sips of Granddaddy Mimms. That’s right. Flavored shines and those are quite good. But aside from that, I’m not a big fan. I really feel like they’ve missed the mark with Doritos. It feels like in this age that we’re in that Doritos flavored weed would be not only a lot more appropriate, but a lot more efficient because you could arguably cure the munchies while you’re smoking dope <laugh>. So I’m not sure why somebody didn’t go that way. But no, I think this one in particular is possibly the most disgusting thought I’ve had around a flavored alcohol ever. I think it’s a terrible idea, but you know, somebody will do it.
Scott Luton (22:38):
That’s right. I do not disagree with you, Greg. I’d add this, I don’t disagree with any of y’all, but I would be willing to do just one taste, but I ain’t gonna do it for 65 bucks for the be stuck with the bottle. Yeah. Which no one else will probably want to mix a drink. I should have checked out Greg, what they’re serving suggestions, you know, I wonder how they’re proposing you mix it with, or you know what? What do you think, Greg? What comes to mind?
Greg White (23:05):
Yeah, that’s a great question. I mean, maybe it’s a nice compliment to taco meat. I’m not sure. Yeah. What other than weed, what do you usually eat? Nacho? I mean, Dorito. No, I don’t mean you personally. <laugh>. Right? For any of you who smoke weeded out there, let us know. What do you eat along with Doritos when you’ve got the monkeys, whatever that is would be a great compliment. That’s
Scott Luton (23:26):
Right. Right. That’s the $65 question. So hey, PepsiCo out there, empirical out there. Hey, prove us wrong. Shoot us a bottle, we’ll kick the tires and give you some feedback maybe. Ugh.
Greg White (23:38):
No we won’t. You’ll I won’t. Nothing is gonna get me to drink that. Alright,
Scott Luton (23:43):
Fair enough. Fair enough. All right. Right folks, man, this has been an incredible year. You know, as we’ve shared on the front end of the show, this is the last buzz for 2023, at least in content generation form. Mm-Hmm. There’s some other buzzes I think will be involved over the next couple weeks, but it’s been a wonderful year here at Supply Chain now a record breaking year in many ways. Yeah. And Greg, you know, beyond our team and the whole supply chain global fam, of course we’re very thankful for all of our audience members out there that have chimed in. Just like all the, our great friends here, Gary and Alan, t Squared, pb, Gloria, Mar, mark, you name it. All the folks out there, you know, y’all, the reason we do this and to have all of you out there and more and more every day come with us on this journey. Yeah. We’re very, very grateful. So Greg, what else would you add to that?
Greg White (24:29):
Yeah, well, I mean, we love to share our time, our knowledge, our opinions, insights, whatever you wanna call it with you. And we love to get ’em back from you. We have such highly informed, educated, thoughtful, innovative, open-minded audience all the way around the world that it’s a lesson for us every time we get on the air as well. Right? I think, you know, sharing this really amazing craft with people all the way around the world and talking about where it’s going and how it’s impacted and how it is impacting business and the planet and people is so satisfying and still interesting though not as interesting as right after the great toilet paper shortage of 2020. Had to mention that one final time before Right. Crash into the new year. You know, I think that supply chain really matters. And as we’ve experienced as, as some of our research has shown, supply chain has the biggest impact on a brand, on its contributions, on its impact and on its profitability and top line and brand identity of any aspect of the business. Sales promises, supply chain delivers. Right? Where did that come from? I like that. Just thought I’d turn those things off, man. <laugh>,
Scott Luton (25:45):
<laugh>, sales promises, supply chain delivers.
Greg White (25:49):
Well, I mean, it’s true, right? I mean, and, and you don’t build a brand or brand reputation or brand identity or brand value without delivering. You can’t just promise that’s right to be Coke. It really has to be the real thing <laugh>, right? That’s not just say it’s the real thing.
Scott Luton (26:07):
So true, Greg. So true. Eloquently stated as well. Alright, so folks, as we wrap up a little bit earlier here today, thank y’all again for being with us in Journey. Big things, big, big, big, big things ahead. 2024 is gonna be an exciting year on so many levels here at Supply Chain now and beyond. Big thanks to our entire team here that makes this possible. Big thanks to our audience out there, Greg. I’m gonna challenge, you know, we got a standard challenge, but I’m gonna challenge y’all with one little thing here during the thick of the holiday season. And we wrote about this the other day, this little phrase we’ve got, which has become a bit of a mantra to try to help center ourselves during the toughest of days when people are making us crazy. We all deal with that. We all deal with some degree of crazy during the holiday season, right?
Scott Luton (26:44):
But PTK, every day, patience, tolerance and kindness, try to approach those folks out there. You never know what the person serving you coffee or bringing you food or just your colleagues are going through mm-Hmm, <affirmative>. So practicing a little PTK every day is a great best practice. And with that said, Greg, folks, don’t sleep on us. We’re not closing, we’re just flipping to the next year. We’ve got tons more great content. Greg and I are back in the studio this week with two great interviews, right? But whatever you do, folks, whatever you do, Scott Luton, Greg White, our whole team, challenging you to do good, to give forward and to be the change that’s needed. And we’ll see you next time, right back here at Supply Chain now. Thanks everybody.
Intro/Outro (27:26):
Thanks for being a part of our supply chain now, community. Check out all of our programming@supplychainnow.com and make sure you subscribe to Supply Chain now, anywhere you listen to podcasts. And follow us on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, and Instagram. See you next time on Supply Chain. Now.
