[00:00:00] Bob Costello: it screams to me that we are in the midst of a recovery in the industry. But here’s the interesting thing, it is a supply side recovery. They’re very rare. they don’t happen very often. there wasn’t a lot of growth in demand, right, in terms of shipments, but that spend index surged during the quarter, and​

[00:00:34] Scott W. Luton: Hey, good afternoon, good evening, good morning, good May, good 2026. Scott Luton and Karin Bursa here with you live on Supply Chain Now. Welcome to today’s show. Hey, Karin Bursa, how you doing today?

[00:00:48] Karin Bursa: I’m doing great, Scott. 

[00:00:49] Karin Bursa: I’d like to offer my warm welcome to all the supply chain movers and shakers who are joining us today 

[00:00:54] Karin Bursa: as well.

[00:00:56] Scott W. Luton: It’s a great time to be in global supply chain. Am I right, Karin?

[00:00:59] Karin Bursa: It is a great time to be in supply chain. I 

[00:01:02] Karin Bursa: agree.

[00:01:04] Scott W. Luton: Folks, we’re continuing a long-running, terrific series here today. We’re gonna be sharing key insights from the latest quarterly edition of one of the leading transportation industry resources, the US Bank Freight Payment Index for Q1 2026. We always get a lot of feedback from this practical, 

[00:01:22] Scott W. Luton: actionable series.

[00:01:23] Scott W. Luton: Not only are we gonna be, uh, diving into what the data’s telling us, which is always important, but as always, we’re gonna be marrying that data-driven perspective up with boots-on-ground, in-market executive practitioner perspective. We’re gonna get a good sense of what transpired in the first quarter of 2026 from a freight market, really from an economic freight market supply chain business perspective here in the US and beyond.

[00:01:47] Scott W. Luton: We’re also gonna share a few nuggets that will help prep you for where we’re headed. It’s gonna be in a great conversation here. You know, we, we get all kinds of feedback from supply chain teams who lean on a variety of resources like the Freight Payment Index to identify trends, plan and project, create productive conversations with suppliers, customers, you name it.

[00:02:10] Scott W. Luton: It’s news you can use, 

[00:02:11] Scott W. Luton: huh?

[00:02:12] Karin Bursa: It is news you can use, You know, I’m a big proponent of facts, not feelings. and this U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index is built on a very solid foundation of real verified data And I know it’s, it’s billions of dollars in actual freight movement. So, it’s a really good indicator of what just happened.

[00:02:33] Karin Bursa: And I think between Bobby Holland and Bob Costello, they give us a 

[00:02:38] Karin Bursa: good view of what might be coming as well. So, 

[00:02:41] Karin Bursa: this is one of my favorite shows that, uh, Supply Chain Now does every quarter. 

[00:02:45] Scott W. Luton: Same. It’s bedrock. You can build your house on 

[00:02:49] Scott W. Luton: it. What we talked about here today is bedrock in terms of foundational strength as Karin was talking about. 

[00:02:55] Scott W. Luton: One really important element to the Freight Payment Index 

[00:02:58] Scott W. Luton: is all the treasure troves 

[00:02:59] Scott W. Luton: of data processed through U.S. Bank. In fact, did you know U.S. Bank processed $46 billion worth of transactions in 2025 alone? All those data-driven insights and great commentary from one of our guests here today.

[00:03:12] Scott W. Luton: Well, all that makes, for one of the biggest reasons why U.S. 

[00:03:15] Scott W. Luton: Bank is a terrific resource for this information that, as we mentioned, many business leaders leverage out in the market. 

[00:03:21] Scott W. Luton: So, Karin, are you ready to welcome in our 

[00:03:24] Scott W. Luton: guests here today? 

[00:03:25] Karin Bursa: I am. I’m ready to get started. 

[00:03:28] Scott W. Luton: Let’s dive in. Wanna welcome in once again, the dynamic duo, Bobby Holland, Director of Freight Business Analytics at U.S.

[00:03:34] Scott W. Luton: Bank, and back by popular demand, Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of International Trade and Security Policy for the American Trucking Associations.

[00:03:45] Scott W. Luton: Hey, Bobby, welcome back. How you doing? 

[00:03:48] Bobby Holland: doing? 

[00:03:49] Bobby Holland: well. Great to, see you, my friend. And Bob Costello, gosh, to have you twice in one year or twice in about a six-month stretch, we must be living right, Bob. Welcome in. 

[00:04:02] Bob Costello: Great to be here. 

[00:04:04] Scott W. Luton: Uh, so let’s do this. We got a lot to get into, but really quick, start a little fun warm-up question.

[00:04:09] Scott W. Luton: Uh, we were talking about this pre-show, and there were some common themes here. Bob, you just got back from one of your favorite places in the whole world, Rome, Italy, and you’re watching the Italian Open. Is that right?

[00:04:22] Bob Costello: I know most people go to the Eternal City for all the sights, which are amazing, but, uh, my family and I went and, uh, did like three days of tennis over there. It was a short trip, but it was a lot of fun. Saw some fantastic tennis. this is the build-up to the French Open, so this is the last one, and we’re big tennis fans.

[00:04:41] Bob Costello: So, uh, yeah, it was great. 

[00:04:42] Scott W. Luton: That is outstanding. Outstanding. And folks, if y’all want the full rundown on everything Bob did, you have to reach out to him on LinkedIn. He might share. Who knows? Uh, Bobby Holland, now you have ventured around the world, all kinds of travel, and you’ve made a few stops in Italy, including Rome.

[00:04:57] Scott W. Luton: What was one of your highlights when you ventured over to 

[00:04:59] Scott W. Luton: Rome?

[00:05:00] Bobby Holland: Uh, it’s gonna be the pasta. 

[00:05:04] Bob Costello: Yeah, 

[00:05:05] Bob Costello: Yeah, 

[00:05:06] Bobby Holland: Definitely had to try, uh, the, the four that they’re famous for. And then the other sideline highlight was the Starbucks, uh, that was about a half a block from our, Airbnb, had a bar.

[00:05:20] Scott W. Luton: Okay. 

[00:05:21] Bobby Holland: So while my friends here were having their coffee break at noon over there, I was having an espresso martini with it ’cause it was aperitivo time.

[00:05:30] Bobby Holland: So we compared pictures, and my stuff looked a lot better than their lattes, so all 

[00:05:35] Karin Bursa: I can imagine. Yeah. 

[00:05:37] Scott W. Luton: that, uh, Bobby. All right. So Karin, between what Bob and Bobby did and enjoyed in Rome, have you been 

[00:05:43] Scott W. Luton: to Italy yet?

[00:05:44] Karin Bursa: I have not– I have fear of missing out, so I, I’ve got FOMO today. My son and his wife, my daughter-in-law, just got back a couple of weeks ago, had a fabulous time, in Italy. My niece is going in a month, and, um, my second cousin just got back as well. So obviously, Italy is the place to be right 

[00:06:03] Karin Bursa: now. 

[00:06:04] Scott W. Luton: It is the place to be. So 

[00:06:05] Scott W. Luton: folks, if y’all need guidance, reach out. We’re gonna offer that and supply chain and freight market guidance all here today. And it’s great to have Bob and Bobby, and of course, Karin

[00:06:14] Scott W. Luton: let’s do this. Uh, we gotta get to work. We got a lot to get to here today. Bobby, 

[00:06:17] Scott W. Luton: we have got a truckload, I mean, maybe a container load of insights and takeaways to share in today’s show.

[00:06:23] Scott W. Luton: I think seven key takeaways from the, the domestic freight market. But if you had to put all of this and our entire conversation into a one-sentence theme, Bobby Holland, what would that

[00:06:33] Scott W. Luton: be? 

[00:06:34] Bobby Holland: Basically, that uh, capacity tightened sharply in Q1, driving up shipment costs, uh, even as freight volumes remain largely unchanged. it’s a rates rip credibility reset if you want, not as opposed to any other impacts. 

[00:06:49] Scott W. Luton: Okay. And folks, that’s just a tip of the iceberg. We got a lot more to dive in here today. So again, seven critical takeaways we’re gonna cover in just a second. But before we get there, let’s share some context on the front end. Let’s level set a bit so you can appreciate, 

[00:07:05] Scott W. Luton: folks, where these perspectives are coming from.

[00:07:07] Scott W. Luton: And Bob Costello, I wanna, uh, start with you. Again, You joined us about two quarters ago, and I tell you, we got rave reviews, so thank you, uh, 

[00:07:15] Scott W. Luton: Bob. for our new audience members, share a little bit about yourself and the American 

[00:07:20] Scott W. Luton: Trucking Associations.

[00:07:22] Bob Costello: I’m embarrassed to say how long I’ve been at ATA. It’s been a long time, getting close to 30 years, which is crazy. But I’m sitting here in Washington, DC, uh, working at the American Trucking Associations. I’ve got Capitol Hill right over here, DOT right over here. And so we advocate for, uh, the industry, but part of my role in all that is figuring out where we are in terms of freight and, and capacity And so forth. so I’m looking forward to the discussion. 

[00:07:47] Scott W. Luton: Outstanding. Well, hey, we appreciate what you and your organization do for our industry. 

[00:07:52] Scott W. Luton: so vital, uh, really across different sectors and roles and, great to have you here. Um, now Karin, you are certainly not new to these conversations about the Freight Payment Index. I really enjoyed, uh, co-hosting this show with you going back for years.

[00:08:06] Scott W. Luton: so if you would, based on the feedback we get and based on all of your, uh, years of experience, we’re not breaking the 20-year rule of being a, leader and a practitioner out there, how do industry leaders like yourself utilize resources like the US Bank Freight Payment 

[00:08:20] Scott W. Luton: Index?

[00:08:21] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I really think that this, freight movement is really a leading indicator of economic movement, what’s happening today. And the fact that US Bank publishes this, with just a very small lag time, it’s a really good indicator of what’s happening in the market now. So whether we’re talking about raw materials that are headed into factories or finished goods that are moving to distribution centers or retail shelves, what we know is that when freight moves, the economy is in motion, and that’s a good thing.

[00:08:53] Karin Bursa: That’s a good thing for all of our businesses and all of our bank accounts. So I always look forward to this discussion and the insights that, that Bobby shares with us and when Bob’s with us, that he can bring to the table as well. 

[00:09:05] Scott W. Luton: I am with you. Well said, as always. And then, uh, Bobby, let’s make sure, especially for folks that may be new to the US Bank Freight Payment Index, how does it work? What does it analyze? Give us the good stuff

[00:09:17] Bobby Holland: Okay. Well, as you mentioned earlier, uh, we processed over $46 billion in, uh, freight payments. based on all that data, that big data perspective, we have created a quarterly chain-based index. It’s a same-store sales comparison between quarters. basically it, it shows the quarterly deltas in shipments and spend, across the nation, and we break it down regionally as well. 

[00:09:44] Scott W. Luton: I love it. And we’re gonna go through, uh, at a national level. We’re also gonna go through region by region, which is really my favorite, 

[00:09:50] Scott W. Luton: all right. So let’s do this. as I mentioned, we got seven key takeaways from the Q1 

[00:09:57] Scott W. Luton: 2026 Freight Payment Index. I wanna start 

[00:09:59] Scott W. Luton: at the national 

[00:10:01] Scott W. Luton: level. Bob, we’ve got to start at the national level. you know, high level, macro, regional, whatever you wanna call it. Give us a couple of key takeaways 

[00:10:09] Scott W. Luton: for starters. 

[00:10:11] Bobby Holland: Well, at the national level, we saw that spending jumped 12.9% over Q4 2025, and it was also up 21.8% from the same quarter last year. And we’re seeing this as the strongest growth since the pandemic boom. In addition, from a regional shipments spending perspective, this is the first time since the second quarter of 2022 that all five regions posted, double digit year-over-year increases in their spend, ranging from sixteen point seven to twenty-six point seven percent. 

[00:10:41] Scott W. Luton: okay.

[00:10:42] Scott W. Luton: All right. So we’re off 

[00:10:43] Scott W. Luton: to the races now. So Bob, when you hear that and when you see what else is transpiring on your radar economically, supply chain, domestic freight 

[00:10:52] Scott W. Luton: speaking, your

[00:10:53] Scott W. Luton: thoughts?

[00:10:54] Bob Costello: Yeah. So it screams to me that we are in the midst of a recovery in the industry. But here’s the interesting thing, it is a supply side recovery. They’re very rare. they don’t happen very often. as you and, Bobby said, and Karin said earlier, there wasn’t a lot of growth in demand, right, in terms of shipments, but that spend index surged during the quarter, and that really came from two sources. the biggest part of that, the largest part of that was gonna be that capacity tightened. And this has been a source of a, from a couple places over the last few years, right? We’ve got, a whittling away of capacity as we endured a three plus year freight recession, and it was just slowly coming down.

[00:11:39] Bob Costello: But then the US government, DOT, Department of Transportation, did some changes around driver qualifications recently, and those have then also been sort of adding on to that, and that’s really tightened capacity. that’s the major reason why, spending went up. But the, other one that went on is late in the quarter, we know what happened in Iran and we started bombing Iran.

[00:12:03] Bob Costello: And what did that do to fuel prices? Oil prices went up, fuel prices went up, and so the fuel surcharges also went up to what shippers are paying. So the combination of those two things is what has, led to all that, that spending. So it’s really a unique situation that we’re in Right.

[00:12:20] Bob Costello: now in terms of this supply side recovery. 

[00:12:24] Scott W. Luton: Bob, excellent observations there. All right, Karin, your thoughts on what we heard there from Bobby, Bob, and 

[00:12:30] Scott W. Luton: what do you see? 

[00:12:31] Karin Bursa: it’s a bit of a double whammy, um, to see?

[00:12:33] Karin Bursa: double digit, uh, cost increases like this. that it’s coming from really two angles, as, Bob explained. it means that, it’s not isolated, it’s systemic in nature. And supply chain executives who really spent this last couple of years very focused on logistics cost reduction, now the conversation might start shifting more towards securing reliable capacity or protecting service levels, and doing that at an elevated cost basis.

[00:13:04] Karin Bursa: I mean, double digit, we all feel double digit. 

[00:13:07] Scott W. Luton: we all feel double digit. That’s right. 

[00:13:09] Scott W. Luton: okay. So we are going to go region by region, and we’re gonna start with the west region, as we typically do.

[00:13:17] Scott W. Luton: We used to save the west for last, Bobby, but we d- we flipped it on its head last couple shows. love to get your, key takeaways for the west region, Bobby Holland.

[00:13:27] Bobby Holland: Well, the rest re-region saw shipments at their highest level since twenty twenty-three, and this was supported by, steadier manufacturing and port activity. And the result was a fifth consecutive quarter with, yearly gains. 

[00:13:41] Scott W. Luton: Okay. All right. So Bob, when you see what’s going on out West, especially for that Q1 2026, which is what this, 

[00:13:49] Scott W. Luton: report covers, your thoughts, Bob? 

[00:13:51] Bob Costello: Yeah, a couple 

[00:13:52] Bob Costello: things come to mind. First of all, remember a couple things happened around tariffs, in the first quarter, and, the biggest of that was gonna be that the administration lost their battle with the IEEPA tariffs. The Supreme Court overruled it. and I do think while it was sort of it. was in February, and Karin knows as well, but it’s hard to get, certainly on the ships, to get a lot of stuff in o-overnight.

[00:14:14] Bob Costello: But I think there was more air freight coming in. There was definitely a pickup in activity as, importers were trying to, to beat maybe the one twenty-two tariffs, although that just had a bit.

[00:14:26] Bob Costello: of a loss in court as well last week. so I, I, think there was that. I think that there was… you know, manufacturing activity is okay.

[00:14:35] Bob Costello: There are pockets of some real strength. One of them is around, aerospace stuff. Well, we know that’s big in California and in up in Washington State. So, so that was certainly a help there, even though overall it, isn’t too great. you know, consumers are a little mixed. The high-end consumers, are doing well. the, lower-end consumers are struggling a little bit. So I think it’s a sort of a mixed bag. So you add it all up and, and it was a decent quarter. certainly in terms of volumes, uh, for the West, it was one of, the highlights in volumes. 

[00:15:09] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Good stuff there, Bob. I appreciate that. Uh, Karin, your thoughts 

[00:15:14] Scott W. Luton: from out West? 

[00:15:15] Karin Bursa: Bob’s comment on the impact of tariffs or the uncertainty of tariffs, you know, you have to remember that that caused a lot of forward buying, right? Where we were trying to, bring in goods or raw materials ahead of the implementation of tariffs, and then the uncertainty on if the tariffs would hold or be revoked, came into play as well.

[00:15:35] Karin Bursa: So, some of these challenges are all man-made in nature, just from economic policy and investment. Uh, but I do think it’s good news coming in from the West. I, I think the West also had some additional pricing pressure, as you guys had both mentioned before, uh, based on fuel cost as well.

[00:15:53] Karin Bursa: So, uh, that comes into play. the West?

[00:15:56] Karin Bursa: tends to be higher than other areas, that we look at. 

[00:16:00] Scott W. Luton: That’s right. Uh, well, I want to call one thing out in particular, and this isn’t Just to do with the West, although it, exacerbated, in California for sure. But l- check this out. This is from our friends at MarketWatch and GasBuddy as it says in the Freight Payment Index, diesel fuel prices in California alone hit $7.22 per gallon on March 30th, right?

[00:16:21] Scott W. Luton: At the time, that was an all-time high. And they’ve stayed elevated, right? So check out this chart from GasBuddy. That illustrates some of that pain that Karin, that you were talking about earlier, right? and as I was talking pre-show with Bob, he pointed out that the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the EIA, well, they report today that the national average for U.S.-owned highway, important distinction, owned highway diesel fuel prices, that average nationwide is $5.60, almost 64 cents per gallon.

[00:16:51] Scott W. Luton: And while we all focus a lot on gasoline prices as consumers, ’cause that’s important too, but still, Patrick De Haan, I hope I said that right, with GasBuddy, makes a great point saying, quote, “Diesel is the fuel that powers the U.S. economy from tractors to trucks to trains and more.” So we’re gonna see some, um, related economic, uh, metrics, uh, maybe later 

[00:17:12] Scott W. Luton: in today’s show.

[00:17:14] Scott W. Luton: all right. So 

[00:17:15] Scott W. Luton: let’s do this. Uh, we just covered the West along with some national, observations there. I want to shift down to the Southwest. Bobby, what do we see in the Southwest?

[00:17:26] Bobby Holland: The Southwest had its 10th consecutive quarter of double-digit declines in annual shipments. however, the upside was that it was a slower rate of contraction compared to the previous four quarters. 

[00:17:40] Scott W. Luton: All right. So Bob, when you think of the Southwest and, uh, gosh, 

[00:17:44] Scott W. Luton: Texas, Oklahoma, and my geography’s 

[00:17:48] Scott W. Luton: not good. For a couple of states that make up the Southwest, your thoughts, your observations, what’d you see, Bob?

[00:17:53] Bob Costello: Yeah. So, you know, this has been a region that’s been in, at least in terms of volumes, have been in a bit of a decline, as Bobby said, for a while. You know, I think some of that, is simply, during the, pandemic, we saw all these people sort of move down that way, and that has sort of ended.

[00:18:10] Bob Costello: Not that they’re necessarily moving out, but it? it created such a boom in freight for a while, even above and beyond other regions, that I think part of that is just simply, you know, resetting in that region and that’s been part of it. So consumers and, and like a lot of places, consumers are sort of, tamping the brakes a, a little bit.

[00:18:29] Bob Costello: and so that is also it. Now, one thing that I, I, I’ll tell you what is not going on is a, boom in, oil production. I mean, we’re the largest oil producer in the world. a, lot of that, as we know, comes from down in that region. Uh, but you know, a lot of times people are saying to me, “Why aren’t they just producing even more oil to help with these high oil prices?”

[00:18:51] Bob Costello: the problem is the current price is really high for oil, but if you look at future prices, it’s coming down. So as a business person, you’re never gonna say, “Let’s produce– Let me make all this investment for the future when the future price is saying it’s lower.”

[00:19:05] Bob Costello: So I think that is, that is also one of, one of the issues in that region. 

[00:19:09] Scott W. Luton: Yes, Bob, a lot of good stuff there. And, and by the way, Karin, I don’t wanna alienate any parts of our SC&Global fam. That’s New Mexico and Arizona were the other two states I was, I was looking to place in the Southwest. Beautiful states. all right. So Karin, when you think of the Southwest and what you’re seeing there and what you heard from Bobby and Bob, what comes to mind?

[00:19:29] Karin Bursa: Yeah, as I looked at the report, I kind of had the same, feeling. I know Bobby made the comment that it’s contracting slower, but I looked at it more as maybe kind of stabilizing to a new, range, if you will, for some of the factors that Bobby mentioned, um, as people migrated maybe to the, to the Southwest.

[00:19:47] Karin Bursa: I think, though, that we are still gonna see this region as critically important because as companies continue nearshoring activities, manufacturing diversification in the Southwest is a critical, contact point for those goods coming in as well. So, I think that, that we will see maybe the stabilization happen and then, um, see some of that activity continue to, to kind of pick up just as companies diversify their networks. 

[00:20:17] Scott W. Luton: Well said, uh, Karin. I, I agree with you. all right. So one other quick point I wanna add about the Southwest, because we know Texas makes up a big chunk of the Southwest region. I wanna share a couple of, 

[00:20:28] Scott W. Luton: uh, data points here. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is always a great source for many, for lots of data, but especially manufacturing 

[00:20:35] Scott W. Luton: data, right?

[00:20:36] Scott W. Luton: What the Texas industry, what we’re seeing there. we all know that’s a critical input to the freight market and many, many other things. From their latest data for– that was released showing, April 2026, 

[00:20:47] Scott W. Luton: which is just again outside of the first quarter of 2026, but nevertheless, I th- I think it’s really an interesting look 

[00:20:53] Scott W. Luton: at.

[00:20:54] Scott W. Luton: the Texas manufacturing market, number one, it’s kind of a mixed bag. Good news, the production index shown here jumped 12 points, 

[00:21:01] Scott W. Luton: which suggests an above average pace of output 

[00:21:04] Scott W. Luton: expansion. But the not so good news, which 

[00:21:07] Scott W. Luton: is to be expected based on some of these other things we’re talking about, after a slight decline in raw materials and inputs pricing, that key metric, 

[00:21:14] Scott W. Luton: well, it’s begun to creep back up.

[00:21:17] Scott W. Luton: And my hunch, we’ll see if Bob and Bobby and Karin agree with me, my hunch 

[00:21:21] Scott W. Luton: is we can expect that probably to continue throughout second quarter rather, probably third and fourth too. We’ll see. Uh, so it’s always interesting. I love the manufacturing market. It, it creates so much for countries and for industries, and we’ve got to keep our finger on the pulse there.

[00:21:36] Scott W. Luton: Um, all right, so folks, we are now going to the Midwest region, the great Midwest, the great American Midwest. And Bobby, tell us, key takeaways 

[00:21:46] Scott W. Luton: here. 

[00:21:47] Bobby Holland: The Midwest had its strongest quarter since Q1 2018, and it was the largest increase of all five regions in both shipments and spending. 

[00:21:58] Scott W. Luton: Okay. All right. So Bob, love the Midwest. There’s so much, uh, the economy and global supply chain depends on so many things happening there in the 

[00:22:06] Scott W. Luton: Midwest. Your thoughts?

[00:22:08] Bob Costello: Well, first of all, it’s remarkable that that happened because of the winter weather that, uh, a large part of the Northeast, I’m sure we’ll talk about that shortly, in the Midwest, experienced, uh, during the first quarter, right? and that– those are, by the way, when you get those storms like that, they’re just sort of lost because it’s hard to make up, for freight, on those days. so I think it’s really quite impressive that uh, it happened considering the winter that hit in that area. So what was it? I think somebody mentioned it earlier. you might have mentioned it. I do think there was a bit of a catch-up effect with Um, motor vehicles. the Midwest region accounts for about fifty percent of the value of production of, of motor vehicles, bodies, trailers, auto parts, and so forth.

[00:22:53] Bob Costello: So that was a big help as 

[00:22:55] Bob Costello: sort of there was also a little bit of catch-up effect there around cars and, and auto production.

[00:23:00] Scott W. Luton: Outstanding, Bob, and I’m gonna add a little more, uh, to that in just a moment. But Karin, the Midwest, uh, your 

[00:23:06] Scott W. Luton: thoughts, what you saw 

[00:23:08] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I, I thought the Midwest 

[00:23:09] Karin Bursa: was an interesting signal, if you will, this 

[00:23:12] Karin Bursa: report. as, uh, Bob mentioned, you know, automotive, heavy equipment, defense manufacturing in the Midwest as well. These are, you know, we think of them in a broader term of, of kinda heavy industrial America sectors. But investment there usually indicates growth in other industries over time.

[00:23:29] Karin Bursa: So when the Midwest strengthens, it could be a really good indicator for the rest of production and supply chain replenishment activity. 

[00:23:38] Scott W. Luton: That’s right. Automotive touches so much. It’s like housing. It’s like maybe aviation, aerospace. all right, so I wanna double down. And I had to double-check my slides because my slides better agree with what Bob says or I’m gonna be in trouble. So, but he made such a great point, and I think you really see it in this data here, which comes from, uh, FRED, the Federal Reserve Economic Data.

[00:24:01] Scott W. Luton: It’s a great clearinghouse for all kinds of data. Uh, so as Bob mentioned, and as Karin and Bobby spoke to, the Freight Payment Index also mentions if you download it. Automotive production increased in the first quarter and gave a boost to the freight market really across the Midwest region and really other sectors too.

[00:24:17] Scott W. Luton: If you look at the US auto production data that we’re talking about, look at it on a chart. Man, the last few months, uh, it’s been recovering nicely, from its low there you see in November. And 

[00:24:27] Scott W. Luton: this, this chart goes back 12 months. But 

[00:24:30] Scott W. Luton: if you look at 

[00:24:31] Scott W. Luton: a different picture, right, this goes back five years.

[00:24:35] Scott W. Luton: the domestic auto industry is still trying to capture its recent productivity highs of 2022 and 2023. So we’ll see 

[00:24:42] Scott W. Luton: if the recent increase will hold as we get further into this year. 

[00:24:46] Scott W. Luton: Hey, really quick, Bob, a little 

[00:24:47] Scott W. Luton: aside.

[00:24:49] Scott W. Luton: quick prediction based on what your crystal ball says. Do you, do you see continued strengthening when it comes to production in the domestic 

[00:24:57] Scott W. Luton: auto industry?

[00:24:58] Bob Costello: Well, I think the challenge for them is going to be two things really. One is, interest rates, are probably not gonna help that sector. I think that there’s, you know, at best they’ll sort of stay where they are or they could go up, unlikely to go down. if you listen to consumers, what they say over and over is, yes, interest rates are high for things like cars or, you know, if they finance appliances or, or so, and even homes.

[00:25:26] Bob Costello: but the bigger challenge in many ways is the high price of those goods. So it’s a double whammy. Uh, as consumers go out there, yes, they’re sort of catching up, But I think your chart was spot on. it was perfect to show that because they are down. we’re up from where we were recently, and I don’t think that it’ll maybe improve a little bit um, as we need, uh, some catch-up effect in replacing cars, but it’s gonna be a challenge out there overall, I think.

[00:25:54] Bob Costello: I don’t think it’s gonna be a boom. 

[00:25:55] Scott W. Luton: all right. So we’ve got a question for you, Bob, around imports from Canada. I’m gonna get to that in just a second because I want to get to the Northeast and circle back to Bobby.

[00:26:05] Scott W. Luton: Bobby, we’re headed to the, uh, Northeast region, 

[00:26:09] Scott W. Luton: perhaps the population capital of the, of the US, if I’m not mistaken. Bobby, 

[00:26:12] Scott W. Luton: what, uh, key 

[00:26:13] Scott W. Luton: takeaways do you see?

[00:26:14] Bobby Holland: there’s no surprise here on the fact that severe winter storms disrupted freight early in the quarter in this region, and that ended, the Northeast region run of sequential shipment gains dating back to the first quarter of twenty twenty-five. 

[00:26:29] Scott W. Luton: Okay. Well, streaks are made to be broken, as they say in baseball. Uh, Bob, what’d you see in the Northeast?

[00:26:35] Bob Costello: I think Bobby summed it up. I mean, uh, they got clobbered, right? I actually have an uncle who is a truck driver, and he sent me pictures of him in New Jersey with just tons… I mean, he was snowed in and so forth that was a big part of it because it’s not just you and I as consumers then not going out and buying stuff because we’re at home with all this snow.

[00:26:56] Bob Costello: We’re not getting to work, right? We’re not going out to restaurants. manufacturers then are shut down for a day or two in many cases, as they’re not getting inputs in so you add it all up, that– those are lost days and And that alone can have a, a big impact, at least in specifically in this quarter.

[00:27:16] Bob Costello: Because as Bobby said, they had been doing really 

[00:27:18] Bob Costello: Well, after being like sort of the worst region for a while, uh, during the pandemic, and then was starting to come back as consumers in that, in that area were doing okay. But I think the winter weather clobbered them. 

[00:27:30] Scott W. Luton: Yep. I’m with you, Bob. And to your point, you said earlier, uh, you don’t get those days back, uh, oftentimes. Really tough to make up lost time, uh, from a production standpoint. And Karin, the Northeast, uh, your thoughts?

[00:27:43] Karin Bursa: Bobby and Bob covered it pretty well. I mean, what this tells us is that shippers were paying a premium just to maintain the flow. So it, it doesn’t indicate growth at all. They lost days, they lost productivity time, but costs still were on the rise. 

[00:27:59] Scott W. Luton: Yep. Uh, all right. So I wanna follow up. And by the way, I like, Bob, I’m gonna steal that verb, I think it is, clobbered. That paints such a clear picture, a very accurate picture. let’s talk about Canada. You know, it’s up there, talking Northeast, uh, the beautiful Niagara Falls is just around the b- across the border there.

[00:28:17] Scott W. Luton: I think Ottawa is up in that neck of the woods. but when you think of Canada, the wonderful, beautiful country of Canada, and you think about imports, exports, especially our relationship with Canada right now, give us a couple observations there, would you?

[00:28:30] Bob Costello: Yeah. So, um, let’s start with just truck transported, trade with Canada. it’s been down, right? Uh, as you can imagine with tariffs and so forth, I don’t think it’s surprising. Of course, there’s a lot of back and forth. And So as production fell, as we’ve been talking about for a while, that’s gonna 

[00:28:47] Bob Costello: push down freight volumes. And we’ve seen 

[00:28:49] Bob Costello: that with, with Canada, around a lot of different things, but certainly around automotive and, and so forth. don’t forget too that we import a lot of oil from Canada. In fact, that’s, uh, by far the largest source 

[00:29:02] Bob Costello: of imported oil. Remember what we in the US, it’s kinda interesting, we are the largest producer of oil in the world, but we export a ton and we import a ton because our refineries are not really set up i-in many cases for the oil that we actually produce.

[00:29:17] Bob Costello: So we have to export the oil we produce and import other oil. We get that from Canada. So that’s great that it’s nearby, um, but that has also impacted, uh, some of the now a lot of that comes by pipeline and So, forth. but anyways, we saw, in the Southwest region, last year was the first non-recession year that we saw volumes with Mexico to fall in a non-recession year.

[00:29:38] Bob Costello: Recession years, it’s fallen sooner. but since 2003, it was the first non-recession drop in truck volumes from Mexico. That screams to me tariffs, right? I mean, that is– sort of the same but a little bit worse with Canada. 

[00:29:54] Scott W. Luton: and it makes us all wanna scream, I think. Screams tariffs makes us all wanna scream. But, uh, really quick, Bob, uh, appreciate that rundown, uh, on the Canadian side. And of course, you mentioned the one blurb in my… Yes, I print these out, 

[00:30:07] Scott W. Luton: folks. I practice what I preach. It’s a lot of stuff to dive into. 

[00:30:11] Scott W. Luton: when it comes to imports, exports from Mexico, you mentioned one 

[00:30:15] Scott W. Luton: big signal there.

[00:30:16] Scott W. Luton: Any other observations 

[00:30:18] Scott W. Luton: about what we’re seeing there? 

[00:30:20] Bob Costello: Yeah, I mean, listen, I think long term it’s gonna be.

[00:30:23] Bob Costello: just fine. I think North American, production is gonna be good. That’s good for trucking. We have USMCA review. I anticipate that, gets done. It’s a little frosty right now with the Canadians in, in the, US, a little bit better with, uh, US and Mexico.

[00:30:39] Bob Costello: But in the end, we need this strong North American economy to fuel all of us But also really help trucking volumes. and, you know, it generates a lot of trucking US trucking jobs and so forth doing this back and, forth trade because production is going on in all three countries, and trucks are transporting it back and forth.

[00:31:01] Bob Costello: And that’s really good for, for all of us in, supply chains. 

[00:31:04] Scott W. Luton: Bob, I’m with you. And before we get back to Bobby and we finish the other region, got two things. Karin, I wanna check in with you. When you, when you heard Bob’s comments about our trade with our no- northern and southern neighbors, anything 

[00:31:19] Scott W. Luton: stick out for you? 

[00:31:20] Karin Bursa: I think he’s spot on. I think that, um, some of the variability we’ve seen has, been because of the tariff situations and, you know, the initial placement of the tariffs and then some changing scale in the tariffs and then, action. I, I’m a believer that long term there will be something in place that changes the trade policy, if you will.

[00:31:42] Karin Bursa: but these partners, you know, Canada and Mexico in particular, these are important partners, uh, to the US economy, and I believe that 

[00:31:51] Karin Bursa: we’ll stabilize and find, uh, something that, that works overall and addresses the concerns. 

[00:31:58] Scott W. Luton: I’m with you. It’s too much of a, a terrific opportunity to let me go to waste. Just my personal opinion there. all right, really quick before we go back to Bobby and talk Southeast. You know, when, when we think about the Northeast, we think about a really big port up there, uh, the Port of New York and New Jersey.

[00:32:14] Scott W. Luton: And I stumbled across this, um, top 30 US port report, item from our friends at the Cart. Now, if y’all check out the freight payment index, you know, seaport activity is critical, right? It’s critical. You see it, we reference it regularly at the national level and the regional level. it’s just as important to the freight market as it is to really, you know, global supply chain.

[00:32:34] Scott W. Luton: So I thought it’d be interesting. they got finalized volumes here when it comes to TEU, 20-foot equivalent unit, if I’m not mistaken, uh, Bob, what it stands for. We love our acronyms. Uh, and it ranks. That’s a, you know, core metric for measuring volume. And it shows the top 15 busiest ports in terms of full year 2025 volume.

[00:32:53] Scott W. Luton: No surprises at the top, but we’re seeing some movements, a little bit of movement, through the top 15 at least. And look at Savannah, Karin, making us proud, uh, here in our, home state of Georgia. They continue to expand. It comes in number four in terms of the busiest, uh, US port for full year 2025.

[00:33:12] Scott W. Luton: And of course, Bobby, that brings us officially to the Southeast region, which covers a variety of states there, beautiful states there. Bobby, tell us, if you would, your key takeaways for this critical region 

[00:33:25] Scott W. Luton: too. 

[00:33:26] Bobby Holland: the Southeast for the third straight quarter was the only region to post quarterly and year-over-year declines in shipments. It’s only posted two quarterly increases since Q1 2021. 

[00:33:38] Scott W. Luton: Really? Okay. We got some nuggets here in this edition of the Freight Payment Index. Uh, Bob, in the Southeast, 

[00:33:44] Scott W. Luton: please tell me your thoughts.

[00:33:46] Bob Costello: So this would be another one I’d say the weather, maybe not to the same effect, but we all know that maybe in the Southeast we don’t have– there’s not the equipment to. deal with some of it And, the cold. So, you know, uh, people in the Northeast and, even here in DC, we probably laugh a little bit of the, you know… but it, it did have an impact, right? There’s, there’s no doubt. And then, you know, not to sort of repeat the same themes, but I think we all think of the the Midwest as a big, you know, manufacturing, place. Um, and it is I mean, around autos, But other things. But the Southeast has grown in a lot of those ways, right?

[00:34:23] Bob Costello: We’ve got, you know, around, autos, but also around airplane production and, and so forth. And so, you know, again, manufacturing output, especially if you take out a couple little, relatively small, uh, things around, computers and so forth manufacturing production is pretty sluggish.

[00:34:42] Bob Costello: It’s not getting worse, but it’s not getting much. better either. And so I think the combination of all of that, impacted the, the Southeast region. also then one other thing I’d, I’d mention is, yes, around winter weather, But also just generally, I think tourism isn’t As good as it used to be.

[00:34:59] Bob Costello: And remember spring break, like a lot of people would flock to the Southeast for spring break, and I just don’t think you’re seeing the numbers, uh, for a host of reasons. I think some, maybe not as many foreigners coming in, for, those types of trips, but also Americans, especially at the lower level of the, the income level, they’re struggling and, you know, we’re actually seeing real wages as inflation starts to ease up.

[00:35:24] Bob Costello: We’re seeing real wages now, actually fall again and, uh, you add it all up and I think it hit that region. 

[00:35:30] Scott W. Luton: I’m with you. Uh, and Bob, uh, we’re gonna touch on some of the things you mentioned there. Karin, Bob is right. We get an inch of precipitation and we’re clobbered. We’re clobbered. We don’t know what to do. Uh, Karin, w- as we bring it home to the Southeast, 

[00:35:45] Scott W. Luton: your thoughts? 

[00:35:46] Karin Bursa: Yeah, I thought that was interesting. If you read the report, it actually mentions freight tied to data center construction as well. that’s a trend that we need to watch because, you know, a-as we hear about long-term, build-outs to support AI infrastructure, more power generation, these things, I think that we may see that begin to influence freight flow and regional capacity patterns in the future.

[00:36:13] Karin Bursa: So I just thought that was a really interesting call-out in the report itself. 

[00:36:17] Scott W. Luton: Well said, Karin. Interesting indeed. Folks, I wanna make sure we’ve covered a lot of ground in just about 30, 35 minutes. Uh, download your own copy of this report. You know, tell us what you agree with, tell us what you disagree with, uh, what you interpret, also compare and contrast that from where you are, your organization is, what you do.

[00:36:37] Scott W. Luton: Uh, we’d love to hear that. If not today, shoot us a note. Uh, all right. So let’s see here. Bob mentioned tourism, right? And there are a variety of data out there that, that points to softer tourism demand in the Southeast, and really across the country, uh, and not just for first quarter 2026.

[00:36:57] Scott W. Luton: One big element to tourism here in the States has been a significant decline in international tourism for a variety of reasons. So I found this data. So this is interesting, I think, from a gee-whiz perspective. But you think of Vegas, right? Vegas is a destination for many global travelers for a variety of reasons, shows, food, gambling, you name it.

[00:37:17] Scott W. Luton: and look at this. This is data from the Harry Reid Airport, 

[00:37:21] Scott W. Luton: Las Vegas. This shows deplanements, right, at that airport for both domestic travelers and international travelers for full 2025 and 2024. Look at the light blue numbers. Look at the declines, right? See all that, all that dropping below the zero, the middle zero zero, line here?

[00:37:41] Scott W. Luton: But guess what? 

[00:37:43] Scott W. Luton: Moving into this year, it hasn’t gotten any better. Now, this is a bit of an eye chart, so bear with me, but this also comes from airport data and from tourismanalytics.com. Look at what I’ve circled there in red. 

[00:37:54] Scott W. Luton: This is 

[00:37:54] Scott W. Luton: January and February. 

[00:37:56] Scott W. Luton: It’s gotten even worse. There was a 18.6% drop off January 2026 from 2025 year-over-year and another almost 11 points in February.

[00:38:08] Scott W. Luton: So we’ll see. We’re gonna keep our finger on the pulse, see where this goes. also see if 

[00:38:12] Scott W. Luton: this is a, probably not a, fair representation of what we’re seeing elsewhere 

[00:38:16] Scott W. Luton: given kind of Vegas is kind of a unique place. But Bob, really quick, tourism, it’s not a fair 

[00:38:21] Scott W. Luton: question, but before I ask you some tougher questions, because there’s a variety of projections, your thoughts for what we might see the rest of the 

[00:38:29] Scott W. Luton: year.

[00:38:30] Bob Costello: Yeah, I think it’s a whole bunch of things, right? I think, we know Canadians are not coming to the US as, as much as they used to. And, I won’t get into all the reasons why, But I think we all, we all pretty much know that. I was just in Europe.

[00:38:42] Bob Costello: I have family that lives in Europe. Um, there’s Europeans that are sort of nervous about coming to the US because of some of the stuff they hear about ICE and so forth. Whether that’s realistic or not is for tourists. It’s, it’s having an impact. But then think about the ripple effect of that, right?

[00:38:59] Bob Costello: Like for example, food production point to GLP-1 drugs and so forth on having an impact on food production and, and not eating as much. But I would say this tourism is also having an impact on that. As you get people coming from outside the country coming in, they need to eat, And that’s gonna also have an impact there as well. 

[00:39:18] Scott W. Luton: Bob, I’m glad you brought it home. And Karin, really quick, those are dollars when you see those types of drops, and that’s just one place, of course, uh, those are dollars that aren’t gonna make it into our economy, and certainly the, the indirect, drop-down effect that Bob was referencing, that’s very real.

[00:39:35] Scott W. Luton: Karin, 

[00:39:36] Karin Bursa: I I think he’s spot on. I think it’s, it’s a number of factors, uh, coming together. I mean, the big question, right, is how much of this is temporary versus how much of it is gonna be, you know, systemic over time. for me anyway, it’s too soon to tell. with so many things in play from, the conflict, um, on a global basis, the tariff situation, fuel cost, et cetera, I think, we’re still gonna be maybe in, in this, period of either constraint or higher volatility for a little while. 

[00:40:07] Scott W. Luton: I agree. VUCA. VUCA is the acronym. I know it’s been around for a long time, but it is– This is the year of VUCA: volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. That is a– That’s quite a four horsemen, huh? 

[00:40:21] Scott W. Luton: Um, 

[00:40:21] Karin Bursa: I think we’ve eliminated the ambiguity here today. I think we’ve gotten some pretty good insights from, from Bobby and from Bob today. 

[00:40:28] Karin Bursa: Uh, but the other three are absolutely at play.

[00:40:32] Scott W. Luton: I agree. And this is where this next– I’ve got two tough questions for y’all 

[00:40:36] Scott W. Luton: both. And Bobby, I would love to hear your input on these, but we can’t. Bobby, as a fiduciary member of, of, of US 

[00:40:44] Scott W. Luton: Bank, can’t weigh in on a couple of these things, and anyone that’s been watching this show knows that’s the 

[00:40:49] Scott W. Luton: case.

[00:40:50] Scott W. Luton: but Bobby, I know you’re gonna enjoy these 

[00:40:51] Scott W. Luton: answers as much as I will. And, uh, Bob, I wanna “

[00:40:54] Scott W. Luton: start with you. And I’m gonna be fair to Goldman Sachs, right? I’m gonna start with this headline here, ’cause this came out in recent days 

[00:41:02] Scott W. Luton: where Goldman Sachs shared they think the odds of a recession have actually decreased 

[00:41:06] Scott W. Luton: due to some, as they say, some of the US economic resilience that they have, measured over the last couple months.

[00:41:12] Scott W. Luton: Now, a lot of folks disagree with 

[00:41:14] Scott W. Luton: that. I may disagree with that. Uh, and I’m gonna get Bob’s take, but before I get Bob’s 

[00:41:19] Scott W. Luton: take, I think it’s fair also to mention the report this morning, and it came out so fast I didn’t get a chance 

[00:41:25] Scott W. Luton: to grab it. numbers came out from the US 

[00:41:27] Scott W. Luton: government here today that inflation, US inflation rose to 3.8% 

[00:41:33] Scott W. Luton: in April.

[00:41:34] Scott W. Luton: Oh my gosh. All right. So Bob, the question there, your thoughts on a potential recession later this year or into next year?

[00:41:41] Bob Costello: All right. So, My baseline forecast is no recession, right? but I think we’re gonna be below trend growth, so less than two percent, uh, this year in terms of GDP growth, real GDP growth after inflation. In the second half of the year, I’ve got less than one and a half percent GDP growth for the second half of the year.

[00:42:04] Bob Costello: But the thing that’s all important for everybody watching this and all of us is this idea of a broader macro recession, and what’s going on in the goods economy. Because remember, we are really a services-based economy. goods economy is about a third. That is gonna grow even less. So, last year we saw for example, all of us buying goods durable goods, big ticket items, as well as non-durable goods, things we use in our everyday life.

[00:42:35] Bob Costello: Both of those increased over three percent after inflation. This year, they’re gonna be one percent or less. you know, tariff goods, right? And we’re seeing, i-inflation, as you mentioned, Uh, go up. So, you know, again, no recession. I’m buying into that at the moment. That’s what my forecasts show. but I also think we have to understand there’s not gonna be this surge in activity on the goods side in, in particular. And in fact, in some areas, there’ll be a slowdown, including what we are all buying as households. 

[00:43:08] Scott W. Luton: Yep. And, you know, uh, Karin, I’ll get your way in as well. it doesn’t have to be a formal recession for there not to be economic pain, or supply chain pain out in the marketplace. It’s an important note to, to mention as well. Karin, your thoughts, predictions on recession, no recession?

[00:43:25] Karin Bursa: I’d 

[00:43:25] Karin Bursa: say I’m pretty well aligned with what, what Bob shared. I think we’ll continue to feel the impact of rising costs in a number of areas. I think everybody, you know, six months, 12 months ago, we were all, focused on increased cost at the grocery store. I think right now we’re feeling it at the gas pump.

[00:43:45] Karin Bursa: the grocery store didn’t necessarily go away, it’s just the new thing we’re focused on, uh, where we’re feeling it the most. but I do think it’s gonna be in a tighter range, and that will be good news as the 

[00:43:58] Karin Bursa: economy stabilizes over time. 

[00:44:01] Scott W. Luton: Well said. Okay, got one more question for you both, 

[00:44:05] Scott W. Luton: Hey, really quick, and this comes from cnn.com. quote, “Prices of fresh fruits and vegetables, which are often transported by refrigerated diesel trucks, rose by 2.3%, the highest monthly increase for that category since 2010.” And that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics where that data comes from. Man. Uh, okay.

[00:44:27] Scott W. Luton: let’s do this. The freight market in the months ahead. The freight market. Bob, what do you think we’re gonna 

[00:44:32] Scott W. Luton: see?

[00:44:34] Bob Costello: So I think if you start to look at the big buckets of freight, you’ve got manufacturing activity, you’ve got construction activity, and you got h- what are. we all buying as households? they’re not getting worse in most instances, and that’s the good news. But I also don’t think you’re seeing just this big groundswell of more freight activity.

[00:44:55] Bob Costello: and Karin’s brought it up a, few times, and she’s exactly right. Like, all of a sudden importers are like, “Oh, there’s an opportunity.” They’re very opportunistic, right? Like, “There’s an opportunity. Let’s do– something now.” Let’s say “We gotta, you know, replenish some inventories and so forth.”

[00:45:08] Bob Costello: So you’re gonna see spikes in activity, but if we sort of smooth it out and look over the long run, I think, that you’re not gonna see a lot of a, big surge in freight volumes. But with that said, I think this, tightness in capacity that has been, has transpired remains. that there’s nothing there that also tells me, “Guess what?”

[00:45:31] Bob Costello: ‘Cause you’re seeing truck orders go up but we’re, we’re behind the curve on replacements. I mean, this is a lot of replacement activity. I don’t think at this point, it’s suggesting to me that there’s this big capacity build coming. I think you wanna talk about affordability and inflation. Equipment prices have gone up substantially.

[00:45:51] Bob Costello: We’ve got tariffs on trucks from Mexico now. We’ve got tariffs on trailers from Mexico and other places. So now you’ve got, yes, you know, there are orders for, for trucks, but I think most of That’s replacement activity. so you’re gonna have this sort of tightness in, in capacity, at least for a period of time.

[00:46:12] Bob Costello: We’ll see how long it lasts. but for the foreseeable future, I think we’re, we’re there. 

[00:46:16] Scott W. Luton: Okay. And Karin, the billion-dollar question, what do you see in the freight market 

[00:46:22] Scott W. Luton: in the months ahead? 

[00:46:23] Karin Bursa: I think that, um, kind of going back to the start of the conversation, you know, we’re looking at double-digit, uh, cost increases across the board here in, uh, in North America. that is largely capacity driven. I think we still have a long-term capacity problem, uh, not just in equipment, as Bob mentioned, but bringing new drivers into the market as well, recruiting talent into these important jobs.

[00:46:50] Karin Bursa: I think we have to stay focused on that as well, uh, from a supply chain and moving goods. 

[00:46:56] Scott W. Luton: I think you’re both right, and I would just add, I’m gonna go back to this, uh, visual I shared, manufacturing inputs in my Prediction is you see what it looked like on the way over here at the, uh, coming into 2022? I hope it doesn’t climb that mountain that high. But, uh, we’re gonna see this, this little trend that started, uh, in the coming months.

[00:47:20] Scott W. Luton: I think we’re gonna see it continue to rise based on a lot of what we’ve talked about here. But certainly, energy prices, diesel prices, the spillover effect from all the friction that we’re finding, you know, trade-related, uh, geopolitical-related. It’s gonna be a, a challenging 2026, whether a formal recession is declared or not.

[00:47:40] Scott W. Luton: Good stuff here today. Uh, Bobby, now we’re circling back to you, uh, because what I want to do, I wanna make sure that folks know exactly where to get their hands on, uh, the great work that you and the team publish once a quarter and make it free to the public. That is a terrific service.

[00:48:00] Scott W. Luton: And Bob, appreciate, of course, your contributions each quarter to that. So Bobby, how, where can folks find 

[00:48:06] Scott W. Luton: it. 

[00:48:06] Bobby Holland: freight.usbank.com Sign up, a little bit of information, uh, just so we know who is requesting it and your email address, and it comes to you, like you said, quarterly, day of publication, right to your 

[00:48:22] Scott W. Luton: Outstanding. Bobby, you’re doing good work. Really appreciate that. Uh, and I always enjoy, and I always get an education when Bobby and friends come once a quarter to Supply Chain Now and share, especially the most important things that, that shippers and supply chain leaders, financial leaders, business leaders gotta pay attention to, uh, when it comes to the domestic freight market.

[00:48:44] Scott W. Luton: Uh, all right. So Bob, you’ve got a really big event coming up at the ATA. Of course, we also have one of my favorite things that y’all are big supporters and, and market leaders around, Driver Appreciation Week, Truck Driver Appreciation Week coming up in September, if I’m not mistaken. But where can folks find, more about you, what you do, what the organization does?

[00:49:07] Scott W. Luton: How can, how can folks do that?

[00:49:08] Bob Costello: people can find more about those meetings and other things about ATA at trucking.org. That’s our website. 

[00:49:14] Scott W. Luton: One quick question, Bob. Uh, Hollywood, Florida, is, are there black tie events, red carpets like there are in the other Hollywood?

[00:49:21] Bob Costello: I don’t think 

[00:49:24] Scott W. Luton: All right. Maybe a few more flip-flops. Who knows? Uh,

[00:49:26] Scott W. Luton: right, Karin Bursa, you’re gonna get the toughest question perhaps of the day, although we threw some big ones to, uh, Bob and Bobby. if folks had to boil it down to one key takeaway from the last hour, which was quite an informative, fast-moving hour, what would that be, 

[00:49:40] Scott W. Luton: Karin?

[00:49:41] Karin Bursa: You know, I’m a big one on, on facts, not feelings. But I have to admit that

[00:49:46] Karin Bursa: when Bob just said he’s feeling a little optimism coming, in his upcoming sessions, that made me smile just a little bit. So I I kinda leaned into that. And that’s more of a feeling than it is a fact at this point in time.

[00:49:58] Karin Bursa: But, uh, I think this report, the U.S. Bank report, you know, it’s a resource for better decision-making. And this quarter’s reports, the insights that

[00:50:06] Karin Bursa: Bobby Holland and Bob Costello shared with us today, they really help us look at this with a clear window on the health of commerce. when transportation networks tighten, fuel costs spike, as we discussed, those costs or the effects, they ripple across the entire economy.

[00:50:25] Karin Bursa: So as supply chain leaders, I think we’ve gotta stay alert. We need to tap into resources like this and the conversations around them to help guide our strategies as we counter or harness opportunities, in the marketplace. Um, but the bottom line is, it’s a great time to be in supply chain. and great information, data, insights, they’re gonna help us drive positive action. 

[00:50:53] Scott W. Luton: was coming at some point. But, you know, kidding aside, There’s mixed signals for sure, but that practical optimism call out is a good one. 

[00:51:03] Scott W. Luton: Um, all right, so big thanks. Bobby Holland, Director of Freight Business Analytics at US Bank. Bobby, thank you so much, my friend. 

[00:51:11] Bobby Holland: Thank you all. Appreciate 

[00:51:13] Scott W. Luton: And Bob Costello, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of International Trade and Security Policy for the American Trucking Associations, trucking.org folks. Bob, thanks for being here, my friend.

[00:51:24] Bob Costello: Loved it. Great conversation 

[00:51:26] Scott W. Luton: No doubt. Uh, Karin Bursa, always a pleasure. Really enjoy your perspective and, and also help me, cause you know, Bobby and Bob are a few pay grades above mine. I appreciate how you kinda take what they say and give me, uh, bites of the apple and, and help me understand and track with them. And of course, love your perspective as well.

[00:51:45] Scott W. Luton: Thanks for being here, Karin.

[00:51:47] Karin Bursa: Thanks, Scott. I think you’re throwing a little sunshine there. Um, yeah, I mean, you’re bringing some other data to the table here, today, so all good stuff and always a pleasure to be with, with Bobby Holland and Bob Costello. 

[00:51:59] Scott W. Luton: That’s right. Same. Agreed. Um, all right, so folks, but the billion dollar question is what do you do, right? A- after the last hour, you got the Freight Payment Index, which is chock-full of, of good stuff, actionable stuff. Then you got Bobby’s and Bob’s and Karin’s perspective rooted in bedrock.

[00:52:14] Scott W. Luton: It’s up to you what you do with it, right? You gotta do something with it. Deeds not words is what we tout here today. Take one thing from Bobby or Bob or Karin and do something with that here today. And with all that said, Scott Luton challenging you to do good, give forward, be the change that’s needed, and we’ll see you next time right back here on Supply Chain Now.

[00:52:31] Scott W. Luton: Thanks, everybody.​