Recessions are more common than most people realize. We have had 12 recessions in the last 75 years and 4 in the last 30. Some were caused by wars, and others by tech and housing bubbles, but they each left their mark on the American people and businesses.
What everyone wants to know today is whether another recession is on the horizon? Many signs point to an increasing probability of recession, most strictly defines as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, but the “experts” can’t seem to agree on timing and severity.
In this week’s Dial P audio podcast, Kelly Barner explains the parameters of recession and what we should be on the lookout for in future economic reports.
Welcome to dial P for procurement, a show focused on today’s biggest spin supplier and contract management related business opportunities. Dial P investigates, the nuanced and constantly evolving boundary of the procurement supply chain divide with a broadcast of engaged executives, providers, and thought leaders give us an hour and we’ll provide you with a new perspective on supply chain value. And now it’s time to dial P for procurement.
Kelly Barner (00:31):
Does it really matter if we go into a recession in recent episodes of dial P for procurement, we’ve taken super hyped up news stories and brought them back to earth and made them more manageable. By focusing on the facts we dug into the details behind Elon, mosque’s apparently paused effort to take Twitter private. We walked back through time to understand why the baby formula shortage reached such a critical point. And we investigated the measurable sources and implications of sky high inflation, but there is one topic that is looming large over all of these it’s appearing more and more in news stories and CEOs are making news on a weekly basis for speculating. If and when it will arrive, we’re all standing in its shadow. What am I referring to the R word recession? Are we really headed for recession or is talk of it just more scare tactics trying to grab eyeballs on the latest headline and truthfully, if it is a recession that’s on the horizon, does it really matter?
Kelly Barner (01:51):
We’re going to talk about that today. Hi, there I’m Kelly Barner. Thanks for joining me for this week’s episode of dial P for procurement, part of the supply chain. Now family of shows. I’m a career procurement practitioner with a love for business news, and most of all good ideas, no matter where they come from. In addition to video interviews and live streams, I’ll join you every Thursday to share my point of view on a current news story that presents an interesting twist for business leaders or a new way of looking at a common challenge, all with a heavy dose of common sense. Of course, before I dig back into this week’s topic, we’re building out dial P’s independent following. So no matter where you encountered this podcast, let’s engage. Give us a review click. Like if you’re listening in a podcast app, give us a few stars.
Kelly Barner (02:48):
Thank you in advance for being an active part of our listening community. So let’s start with the basics. What is the technical definition of a recession? The most common requirement that people look to is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. Now that definition actually was established in 1974 by economist Juli SHK. He was the commissioner of labor statistics in the Nixon administration. So GDP a gross domestic product is an inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced in United States. In our case. Now, the reason it’s ingested for inflation is to make sure that the rising cost of goods and services is not misinterpreted as increased production, but GDP. Isn’t the only thing that factors in. We also look at rising levels of unemployment falling, retail sales, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, maybe the other thing that’s interesting about recession for all the time we spend dreading them is that they’re very common.
Kelly Barner (04:06):
There have been a dozen recessions in the last 75 years. And in fact, we’ve had four in the last 30. So if we count backwards from most recent and go through these last four, there was the COVID 19 recession. It actually only lasted two months. It was the shortest recession in us history. Then there’s what we often refer to as the great recession that was from December of 2007 to June of 2009. It was caused in part by a bubble that burst in the real estate market. And it lasted 18 months, almost double the length of other recent us recessions there’s of course, the very popular and well known.com recession, which happened in 2001. We associate that with the tech bubble crash, as well as accounting scandals at companies like Enron, which of course then was capped off by the market being closed for a while in the wake of the nine 11 terrorist attacks, it was a brief recession and the economy fairly quickly bounced back.
Kelly Barner (05:11):
And then the last one, as we count back through the last 30 years was the Gulf war recession, which was from July of 1990 to March of 1991. And this recession was caused by spiking oil prices during the first Gulf war. But does someone get to make that decision believe it or not? Yes. There’s an organization called the business cycle dating committee at the national bureau of economic research or N B E R. They are the ones that officially make the designation, make the announcement, decide that we are in a recession. But the funny thing about the importance of also waiting for them to make this call is that there’s such a lag effect, right? We’re watching things like GDP. We’re watching unemployment. It takes time for these numbers to come out. Now, normal, monthly economic numbers are delayed by about a month. And then they’re usually revised in, in subsequent weeks or months.
Kelly Barner (06:10):
But our definition for recession is based on a quarterly GDP number. So the lag is even longer now because of that, companies in particular will try to anticipate whether a recession is coming because then they can start to act as though they’re going into slower economic conditions and protect themselves. Everybody is watching a whole host of economic indicators as well as the stock market, which briefly entered a bear market last week, which means it took a 20% drop in value from its most recent high point. Now I have the wall street journal app on my phone and iPad, and I tend to keep the iPad near me on my desk. And every time there’s a little update, the whole screen lights up and it gives me the little news breaking news panel from the wall street journal for the last week or so. It’s been lighting up all day, the stock market’s up the stock market, down the stock market up the stock markets down.
Kelly Barner (07:06):
And part of what’s being worked out in that are real time differences in people’s perceptions of opportunity and their willingness to invest. So that doesn’t have the lag of the recession that we’re waiting for. Now, where are we right now with GDP in the first quarter of the year, GDP decreased by 1.4%. Now, usually on a quarterly basis, they would look for it to grow at about 2%, but we don’t get our next update until July 28th. That’s when we will get what they call the advanced estimate for Q2 GDP. And then there will be of course, subsequent revisions and, and adjustments. But if we’ve already got one down quarter, if we get a second down quarter by that technical definition, we are in a recession. So we’re waiting to find out now back to what retailers are doing. If in fact that second quarter GDP comes in down, we will have been in recession for seven to eight months before it’s officially called.
Kelly Barner (08:13):
So you can certainly understand why they’re trying to anticipate and get ahead of it. Although GDP is the measure and the primary determining factor of recession inflation is very closely linked. And you might actually say that inflation can indirectly cause recession partially because of what the federal reserve ends up doing in response to inflation. Now, if you happened to miss it, go back and listen to dial P episode 18. We asked if inflation expectations were self-fulfilling prophecy. That was back in April. And we talked about the options that the federal reserve has in changing interest rates in order to try to slow down and pull back inflation. So is it possible that the federal reserve can cause a recession in order to save us from inflation? So, as I had mentioned in that episode, the fed will raise interest rates. And they’ve said, they’re going to do it about a half a point at a time through the rest of the year in order to curb demand and make it more expensive for consumers and companies to spend.
Kelly Barner (09:22):
They’re trying to slow the economy down. Unfortunately, if there are too many changes or a strange way of looking at it, if it works too well, they’re gonna slow us right down to the point of recession. Now, one of the other interesting things here is that we think about things like recession and inflation as being general industry economic topics. We think about businesses and companies, but they’re both driven in large part by consumers. So 70% of the us GDP is derived from consumer and household spending, not B2B or corporate spending. So just like the CPI or consumer price index, which is used to measure changes in inflation. That’s consumer driven. So is recession because of that connection to consumer driven GDP. Now companies like target and Macy’s Walmart and Kohl’s consumer facing typical goods companies like this. They were already expecting consumers to start to pull back their spending.
Kelly Barner (10:29):
We’ve all been buying things for the last couple of years. And the economy was generally expected to be moving people towards paying for experiences. They want services, they want dinners, people want to travel. Now what they weren’t expecting was for the shift to be as sudden and dramatic as it was. So now they’re trying to recover from that shift and also reposition themselves to do okay if we do in fact end up in a recession. So we’ve talked about what makes recession and we’ve talked about who declares recession. The next questions are, if it’s coming when and how bad will it be. So to get the answers to those questions, we have to suit ourselves up for the battle of the economists. Everybody’s got a different point of view on this. In the average year, the probability of recession is 15% and banks like Goldman Sachs, Deutsche bank, UBS, they’re all coming out and writing letters.
Kelly Barner (11:29):
They have banks of economists and they’re writing letters to investors to let them know what their read is on the market. And what do they think is going to happen? Goldman Sachs has said that they believe the likelihood of recession in the next two years is 35%. So that’s considerably higher than that average likelihood of 15%. They said, quote, we do not need a recession, but probably do need growth to slow to a somewhat below potential pace, a path that raises recession risk. They certainly don’t wanna sound like they’re cheering for recession. Now in a slightly more doer opinion expressed at the end of April Deutsche, bank’s economists wrote to their investors that they expect a major recession. They said history shows the fed has never been able to correct even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment without pushing the economy into a significant recession.
Kelly Barner (12:26):
And that’s certainly one of the challenges that Jerome Powell and his team face today. We’re looking at the highest inflation rates in four decades, and he only has so many levers to be able to address that you overshoot or miss the timing a little bit. We’re definitely heading for a recession. Mark Hele is the chief investment officer at UBS global wealth management. He’s more optimistic. He expects inflation to ease naturally allowing the fed to step back and maybe not stir the pot quite so much. Maybe we can just let the system alone and let it work itself out. But when we go back and we look to see what’s the sentiment among CEOs, the conference board recently surveyed them. And 60% of the CEOs they surveyed said that they expected the Fed’s Warren inflation to eventually trigger recession. So they’re starting to change the way their companies operate.
Kelly Barner (13:21):
This is affecting hiring and investment decisions. Almost 70% of them think it’s coming. So if we do end up in recession, how do we get out? The biggest thing is that the co the economy generally will start to grow again. And just like there was a lag when we talked about having it be declared that you’re in recession versus actually being in one recovery is very much the same. At some point companies and individual consumers are going to take a look around and see that the money they have saved and the opportunities they’re being presented with given whatever their personal risk tolerance level is mean that an opportunity is worth taking. So that collective mindset shift has to happen long before it starts taking effect in the economy. And we can declare that we’re out now, some of the past recessions that we talked about in 2009, it was government stimulus that got us out.
Kelly Barner (14:18):
That’s unlikely to be the case this time because it’s government stimulus that has enlarged part led to the inflation that we’re currently dealing with. In 2001, it was growth in the housing sector that brought the economy back into growth mode. And the easiest, one of all that short little COVID recession business is reopened. That was all it took for us to be back in growth mode. Now we’ve talked about recession predominantly from the perspective of being inside the us, but recession is also a global dynamic it’s possible for multiple economies. In fact, the world economy to be in recession at the same time in past instances, perhaps China’s economy hasn’t been affected while the us is, was they were able to invest and end up being the engine of growth to pull us out of recession. That is highly unlikely to happen this time. Not only are they still dealing with manufacturing, interruptions and port closures and constraints due to their zero COVID policy, they simply, their economy is not growing as much as it would need to be to help the us get out, nor can we necessarily look to Europe for help.
Kelly Barner (15:31):
They’re being hit far more directly from an economic standpoint by Russia’s war in Ukraine, around both fuel and energy and commodity prices. So they’re not going to be the engine of growth that pulls us out now to a certain extent. And, and this is the source of the, the provocative question that I’ve titled this week’s episode with. Does it really matter if we officially go into recession? I mean, I suppose it matters for the sake of record keeping, right? We want it written down on paper. Are we officially in recession, but as we’ve seen with inflation, people’s concerns about, and mindset towards opportunity can in and of itself drive downturn. If people perceive that their salary doesn’t go, as far as they thought it would, or they start to perceive that common staples like groceries and gas for their cars and home heating oil are significantly more expensive.
Kelly Barner (16:30):
Does it really matter to them? If we’re officially declared to be in a recession, it’s still going to start to change their behaviors in such a way that in and of itself, it’s collectively going to slow the growth of the economy, businesses and consumers make these decisions. Very similarly, it’s all about how they perceive the ROI of any spending or investment decision and their relative risk value. Now, a couple of weeks ago, I covered the baby formula shortage. And it’s funny because I’ve remained hooked to this story. So I keep reading all the new pieces about it. And there was a really funny story in a wall street journal article about the baby formula, this shortage this weekend that I think ties to what we’re talking about, but the connection between inflation and recession. So the author of the story says the infant formula shortage took me back to an illuminating incident during a fire safety training session.
Kelly Barner (17:27):
I attended decades ago, the trainer was showing us how to save a person engulfed by flames. One of the participants objected to using a fire extinguisher on a human being. Aren’t those chemicals dangerous. You are on fire. The instructor replied. So to me, that’s point taken. If you already feel like your money, doesn’t go as far as it should. How much does it actually matter if a recession is declared? And from the same perspective, if we’re already suffering under inflation, does it really help us if we trigger a recession in order to fix it? I also wanted to know, is there any possibility that there’s an upside to recession now, admittedly, all of these upsides also have downsides, but there are a few sort of naturally beneficial over the long term things that can result from recession. So if you have a poorly run company, that’s just scraping itself by, they are in all likelihood going to shrink, go out of business.
Kelly Barner (18:35):
Now that’s not great for their customers, their community, their employees, but it does create an opportunity for other companies that would’ve otherwise competed with them to increase their market share. So it rewards financially efficient, healthy companies. The same thing ends up happening for investors. If you’re an investor that’s overly dependent upon carrying debt in order to manage your investments, you are going to learn a very hard lesson. If we go into recession businesses and people who opt to save and prepare for the future are rewarded. And so they are able to take advantage of opportunities that aren’t present to companies and people who don’t have cash on hand. And it’s that spark of opportunity. That’s that switch flip? I was talking about earlier when people who’ve had the wisdom and the ability to save, see an opportunity and make the decision that the time has come to seize it.
Kelly Barner (19:33):
There are also some companies in industries that will make up better than others. Discount stores like dollar general will do better. Consumers will move off of national brands and try private label or more cost effective brands. People are also more likely to repair cars and add on to homes than they are to move or buy new cars. And of course, if you happen to work in procurement, like I do it both keeps you busy and proves to the company that you work for. Just how valuable you are. There’s always an upside. If you’re in procurement, that’s my point of view. Anyway, my last piece of advice is as with so many of the other stories we’ve covered, keep in mind that the headlines and the hype don’t necessarily signal what’s going to happen and they certainly shouldn’t motivate your decisions. Always remember to go back to the facts, understand the fundamentals, track the numbers before you make a big choice that is as critical with inflation and recession as it is with supply chain, disruption, get to the facts. Thank you for listening to this audio episode of dial P for procurement, but please don’t just listen, join the conversation and let me know what you think about a recession or any other topic. Let’s all work together to learn and figure out the best solution until next time. This is Kelly Barner for dial P for procurement on supply chain. Now have a great rest of your day.
Thank you for joining us for this episode of dial P for procurement and for being an active part of the supply chain. Now community, please check out all of our shows and firstname.lastname@example.org. Make sure you follow dial P four procurement on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook to catch all the latest programming details. We’ll see you soon for the next episode of dial P four procurement.
Host, Logistics with Purpose
Adrian Purtill serves as Business Development Manager at Vector Global Logistics, where he consults with importers and exporters in various industries to match their specific shipping requirements with the most effective supply chain solutions. Vector Global Logistics is an asset-free, multi-modal logistics company that provides exceptional sea freight, air freight, truck, rail, general logistic services and consulting for our clients. Our highly trained and professional team is committed to providing creative and effective solutions, always exceeding our customer’s expectations and fostering long-term relationships. With more than 20+ years of experience in both strategy consulting and logistics, Vector Global Logistics is your best choice to proactively minimize costs while having an exceptional service level.
Joshua is a student from Institute of Technology and Higher Education of Monterrey Campus Guadalajara in Communication and Digital Media. His experience ranges from Plug and Play México, DearDoc, and Nissan México creating unique social media marketing campaigns and graphics design. Joshua helps to amplify the voice of supply chain here at Supply Chain Now by assisting in graphic design, content creation, asset logistics, and more. In his free time he likes to read and write short stories as well as watch movies and television series.
Data Analytics and Metrics Intern
Patch is a fourth-year Management Information Systems and Marketing major at the University of Georgia. He is working with Supply Chain Now in data analysis, finding insights and best practices to increase company efficiency. Patch previously worked as an intern at AnswerRocket, a data analytics company where he gained invaluable knowledge about analytics, webpage SEO and B2B marketing best practices. In his free time, he enjoys playing tennis, going to concerts, and watching movies.
Vicki has a long history of rising to challenges and keeping things up and running. First, she supported her family’s multi-million dollar business as controller for 12 years, beginning at the age of 17. Then, she worked as an office manager and controller for a wholesale food broker. But her biggest feat? Serving as the chief executive officer of her household, while her entrepreneur husband travelled the world extensively. She fed, nurtured, chaperoned, and chauffeured three daughters all while running a newsletter publishing business and remaining active in her community as a Stephen’s Minister, Sunday school teacher, school volunteer, licensed realtor and POA Board president (a title she holds to this day). A force to be reckoned with in the office, you might think twice before you meet Vicki on the tennis court! When she’s not keeping the books balanced at Supply Chain Now or playing tennis matches, you can find Vicki spending time with her husband Greg, her 4 fur babies, gardening, cleaning (yes, she loves to clean!) and learning new things.
Founder, CEO, & Host
As the founder and CEO of Supply Chain Now, you might say Scott is the voice of supply chain – but he’s too much of a team player to ever claim such a title. One thing’s for sure: he’s a tried and true supply chain expert. With over 15 years of experience in the end-to-end supply chain, Scott’s insights have appeared in major publications including The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and CNN. He has also been named a top industry influencer by Thinkers360, ISCEA and more.
From 2009-2011, Scott was president of APICS Atlanta, and he continues to lead initiatives that support both the local business community and global industry. A United States Air Force Veteran, Scott has also regularly led efforts to give back to his fellow veteran community since his departure from active duty in 2002.
Host, Logistics with Purpose
Allison Krache Giddens has been with Win-Tech, a veteran-owned small business and aerospace precision machine shop, for 15 years, recently buying the company from her mentor and Win-Tech’s Founder, Dennis Winslow. She and her business partner, John Hudson now serve as Co-Presidents, leading the 33-year old company through the pandemic.
She holds undergraduate degrees in psychology and criminal justice from the University of Georgia, a Masters in Conflict Management from Kennesaw State University, a Masters in Manufacturing from Georgia Institute of Technology, and a Certificate of Finance from the University of Georgia. She also holds certificates in Google Analytics, event planning, and Cybersecurity Risk Management from Harvard online. Allison founded the Georgia Chapter of Women in Manufacturing and currently serves as Treasurer. She serves on the Chattahoochee Technical College Foundation Board as its Secretary, the liveSAFE Resources Board of Directors as Resource Development Co-Chair, and on the Leadership Cobb Alumni Association Board as Membership Chair and is also a member of Cobb Executive Women. She is on the Board for the Cobb Chamber of Commerce’s Northwest Area Councils. Allison runs The Dave Krache Foundation, a non-profit that helps pay sports fees for local kids in need.
Principal, Supply Chain Now
Host of Supply Chain Now and TECHquila Sunrise
When rapid-growth technology companies, venture capital and private equity firms are looking for advisory, they call Greg – a founder, board director, advisor and catalyst of disruptive B2B technology and supply chain. An insightful visionary, Greg guides founders, investors and leadership teams in creating breakthroughs to gain market exposure and momentum – increasing overall company esteem and valuation.
Greg is a founder himself, creating Blue Ridge Solutions, a Gartner Magic Quadrant Leader in cloud-native supply chain applications, and bringing to market Curo, a field service management solution. He has also held leadership roles with Servigistics (PTC) and E3 Corporation (JDA/Blue Yonder). As a principal and host at Supply Chain Now, Greg helps guide the company’s strategic direction, hosts industry leader discussions, community livestreams, and all in addition to executive producing and hosting his original YouTube channel and podcast, TEChquila Sunrise.
Principal, Supply Chain Now
Host of Supply Chain is Boring
Talk about world-class: Chris is one of the few professionals in the world to hold CPIM-F, CLTD-F and CSCP-F designations from ASCM/APICS. He’s also the APICS coach – and our resident Supply Chain Doctor. When he’s not hosting programs with Supply Chain Now, he’s sharing supply chain knowledge on the APICS Coach Youtube channel or serving as a professional education instructor for the Georgia Tech Supply Chain & Logistic Institute’s Supply Chain Management (SCM) program and University of Tennessee-Chattanooga Center for Professional Education courses.
Chris earned a BS in Industrial Engineering from Bradley University, an MBA with emphasis in Industrial Psychology from the University of West Florida, and is a Doctoral in Supply Chain Management candidate.
Host of TEKTOK
If there’s one Supply Chain ‘Pro to Know,’ it’s Karin. She’s earned the title for three years and counting – culminating in her designation as the “2020 Supply Chain Pro to Know of the Year.” Karin is also an award-winning digital supply chain, business strategy and technology marketing executive. A sought-after speaker at industry conferences, you will find her quoted in a variety of supply chain publications – and active in forums like ASCM/APICS and CSCMP.
With more than 25 years of supply chain experience, Karin spearheaded strategy and marketing for Gartner Magic Quadrant Leader and IDC MarketScape Leader, Logility. Karin has the heart of a teacher and has helped nearly 1,000 customers transform their businesses and tell their success stories. Today, she is a sought-after advisor helping high-growth B2B technology companies with everything from defining their unique value propositions to introducing new products and capturing customer success. No matter their goals, she makes sure her clients have actionable marketing strategies that help grow global revenue, market share and profitability.
Host of Digital Transformers
Kevin L. Jackson is a globally recognized Thought Leader, Industry Influencer and Founder/Author of the award winning “Cloud Musings” blog. He has also been recognized as a “Top 5G Influencer” (Onalytica 2019, Radar 2020), a “Top 50 Global Digital Transformation Thought Leader” (Thinkers 360 2019) and provides strategic consulting and integrated social media services to AT&T, Intel, Broadcom, Ericsson and other leading companies. Mr. Jackson’s commercial experience includes Vice President J.P. Morgan Chase, Worldwide Sales Executive for IBM and SAIC (Engility) Director Cloud Solutions. He has served on teams that have supported digital transformation projects for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the US Intelligence Community. Kevin’s formal education includes a MS Computer Engineering from Naval Postgraduate School; MA National Security & Strategic Studies from Naval War College; and a BS Aerospace Engineering from the United States Naval Academy. Internationally recognizable firms that have sponsored articles authored by him include Cisco, Microsoft, Citrix and IBM. Books include “Click to Transform” (Leaders Press, 2020), “Architecting Cloud Computing Solutions” (Packt, 2018), and “Practical Cloud Security: A Cross Industry View” (Taylor & Francis, 2016). He also delivers online training through Tulane University, O’Reilly Media, LinkedIn Learning, and Pluralsight. Mr. Jackson retired from the U.S. Navy in 1994, earning specialties in Space Systems Engineering, Carrier Onboard Delivery Logistics and carrier-based Airborne Early Warning and Control. While active, he also served with the National Reconnaissance Office, Operational Support Office, providing tactical support to Navy and Marine Corps forces worldwide.
Host of Logistics with Purpose and Supply Chain Now en Español
Enrique serves as Managing Director at Vector Global Logistics and believes we all have a personal responsibility to change the world. He is hard working, relationship minded and pro-active. Enrique trusts that the key to logistics is having a good and responsible team that truly partners with the clients and does whatever is necessary to see them succeed. He is a proud sponsor of Vector’s unique results-based work environment and before venturing into logistics he worked for the Boston Consulting Group (BCG). During his time at BCG, he worked in different industries such as Telecommunications, Energy, Industrial Goods, Building Materials, and Private Banking. His main focus was always on the operations, sales, and supply chain processes, with case focus on, logistics, growth strategy, and cost reduction. Prior to joining BCG, Enrique worked for Grupo Vitro, a Mexican glass manufacturer, for five years holding different positions from sales and logistics manager to supply chain project leader in charge of five warehouses in Colombia.
He has an MBA from The Wharton School of Business and a BS, in Mechanical Engineer from the Technologico de Monterrey in Mexico. Enrique’s passions are soccer and the ocean, and he also enjoys traveling, getting to know new people, and spending time with his wife and two kids, Emma and Enrique.
Host of Dial P for Procurement
Kelly is the Owner and Managing Director of Buyers Meeting Point and MyPurchasingCenter. She has been in procurement since 2003, starting as a practitioner and then as the Associate Director of Consulting at Emptoris. She has covered procurement news, events, publications, solutions, trends, and relevant economics at Buyers Meeting Point since 2009. Kelly is also the General Manager at Art of Procurement and Business Survey Chair for the ISM-New York Report on Business. Kelly has her MBA from Babson College as well as an MS in Library and Information Science from Simmons College and she has co-authored three books: ‘Supply Market Intelligence for Procurement Professionals’, ‘Procurement at a Crossroads’, and ‘Finance Unleashed’.
Host, Veteran Voices
Mary Kate Soliva is transitioning from active duty in the US Army. She is currently in the Doctor of Criminal Justice program at Saint Leo University. She is passionate about combating human trafficking and has spent the last decade conducting training for military personnel and the local community.
Jeff Miller is the host of Supply Chain Now’s Supply Chain is the Business. Jeff is a digital business transformation and supply chain advisor with deep expertise in Industry 4.0, ERP, PLM, SCM, IoT, AR and related technologies. Through more than 25 years of industry and consulting experience, he has worked with many of the world’s leading product and service companies to achieve their strategic business and supply chain goals, creating durable business value for organizations at the forefront of technology and business practices. Jeff is the managing director for North America at Transition Technologies PSC, a global solution integrator, and the founder and managing principal of BTV Advisors, a firm that helps companies secure business transformation value from digital supply chain technologies and their breakthrough capabilities.
Chief Marketing Officer
Amanda is a marketing veteran and entrepreneur with over 15 years of experience across a variety of industries and organizations including Von Maur, Anthropologie, AmericasMart Atlanta, and Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta. In 2016, Amanda founded and grew the Magnolia Marketing Group into a successful digital media firm, and now she develops modern marketing strategies, social campaigns, innovative operational processes, and implements creative content initiatives for Supply Chain Now. But that’s just the beginning of her supply chain impact. Amanda also served as the VP of Information Systems and Webmaster on the Board of Directors for APICS Savannah for several years, and is the face behind the scenes welcoming you to every Supply Chain Now livestream! She was also recently selected as one of the Top 100 Women in Supply Chain by Supply Chain Digest and IBM. When she’s not leading the Supply Chain Now marketing team, you can find Amanda with her and her husband Scott’s three kids, in the kitchen cooking, or reading.
Business Development Manager
Clay is passionate about two things: supply chain and the marketing that goes into it. Recently graduated with a degree in marketing at the University of Georgia, Clay got his start as a journalism major and inaugural member of the Owl’s football team at Kennesaw State University – but quickly saw tremendous opportunity in the Terry College of Business. He’s already putting his education to great use at Supply Chain Now, assisting with everything from sales and brand strategy to media production. Clay has contributed to initiatives such as our leap into video production, the guest blog series, and boosting social media presence, and after nearly two years in Supply Chain Now’s Marketing Department, Clay now heads up partnership and sales initiatives with the help of the rest of the Supply Chain Now sales team.
Trisha is new to the supply chain industry – but not to podcasting. She’s an experienced podcast manager and virtual assistant who also happens to have 20 years of experience as an elementary school teacher. It’s safe to say, she’s passionate about helping people, and she lives out that passion every day with the Supply Chain Now team, contributing to scheduling and podcast production.
Host of Dial P for Procurement
Billy Taylor is a Proven Business Excellence Practitioner and Leadership Guru with over 25 years leading operations for a Fortune 500 company, Goodyear. He is also the CEO of LinkedXL (Excellence), a Business Operating Systems Architecting Firm dedicated to implementing sustainable operating systems that drive sustainable results. Taylor’s achievements in the industry have made him a Next Generational Lean pacesetter with significant contributions.
An American business executive, Taylor has made a name for himself as an innovative and energetic industry professional with an indispensable passion for his craft of operational excellence. His journey started many years ago and has worked with renowned corporations such as The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT) leading multi-site operations. With over 3 decades of service leading North America operations, he is experienced in a deeply rooted process driven approach in customer service, process integrity for sustainability.
A disciple of continuous improvement, Taylor’s love for people inspires commitment to helping others achieve their full potential. He is a dynamic speaker and hosts "The Winning Link," a popular podcast centered on business and leadership excellence with the #1 rated Supply Chain Now Network. As a leadership guru, Taylor has earned several invitations to universities, international conferences, global publications, and the U.S. Army to demonstrate how to achieve and sustain effective results through cultural acceptance and employee ownership. Leveraging the wisdom of his business acumen, strong influence as a speaker and podcaster Taylor is set to release "The Winning Link" book under McGraw Hill publishing in 2022. The book is a how-to manual to help readers understand the management of business interactions while teaching them how to Deine, Align, and Execute Winning in Business.
A servant leader, Taylor, was named by The National Diversity Council as one of the Top 100 Diversity Officers in the country in 2021. He features among Oklahoma's Most Admired CEOs and maintains key leadership roles with the Executive Advisory Board for The Shingo Institute "The Nobel Prize of Operations" and The Association of Manufacturing Excellence (AME); two world-leading organizations for operational excellence, business development, and cultural learning. He is also an Independent Director for the M-D Building Products Board, a proud American manufacturer of quality products since 1920.
Social Media Manager
My name is Chantel King and I am the Social Media Specialist at Supply Chain Now. My job is to make sure our audience is engaged and educated on the abundant amount of information the supply chain industry has to offer.
Social Media and Communications has been my niche ever since I graduated from college at The Academy of Art University in San Francisco. No, I am not a West Coast girl. I was born and raised in New Jersey, but my travel experience goes way beyond the garden state. My true passion is in creating editorial and graphic content that influences others to be great in whatever industry they are in. I’ve done this by working with lifestyle, financial, and editorial companies by providing resources to enhance their businesses.
Another passion of mine is trying new things. Whether it’s food, an activity, or a sport. I would like to say that I am an adventurous Taurus that never shies away from a new quest or challenge.
Lori is currently completing a degree in marketing with an emphasis in digital marketing at the University of Georgia. When she’s not supporting the marketing efforts at Supply Chain Now, you can find her at music festivals – or working toward her dream goal of a fashion career. Lori is involved in many extracurricular activities and appreciates all the learning experiences UGA has brought her.
Sales and Marketing Coordinator
Katherine is a marketing professional and MBA candidate who strives to unite her love of people with a passion for positive experiences. Having a diverse background, which includes nonprofit work with digital marketing and start-ups, she serves as a leader who helps people live their most creative lives by cultivating community, order, collaboration, and respect. With equal parts creativity and analytics, she brings a unique skill set which fosters refining, problem solving, and connecting organizations with their true vision. In her free time, you can usually find her looking for her cup of coffee, playing with her puppy Charlie, and dreaming of her next road trip.
Ben Harris is the Director of Supply Chain Ecosystem Expansion for the Metro Atlanta Chamber. Ben comes to the Metro Atlanta Chamber after serving as Senior Manager, Market Development for Manhattan Associates. There, Ben was responsible for developing Manhattan’s sales pipeline and overall Americas supply chain marketing strategy. Ben oversaw market positioning, messaging and campaign execution to build awareness and drive new pipeline growth. Prior to joining Manhattan, Ben spent four years with the Georgia Department of Economic Development’s Center of Innovation for Logistics where he played a key role in establishing the Center as a go-to industry resource for information, support, partnership building, and investment development. Additionally, he became a key SME for all logistics and supply chain-focused projects. Ben began his career at Page International, Inc. where he drove continuous improvement in complex global supply chain operations for a wide variety of businesses and Fortune 500 companies. An APICS Certified Supply Chain Professional (CSCP), Ben holds an Executive Master’s degree in Business Administration (EMBA) and bachelor’s degree in International Business (BBA) from the Terry College at the University of Georgia.
Host, The Freight Insider
Prior to joining TeamOne Logistics, Page Siplon served as the Executive Director of the Georgia Center of Innovation for Logistics, the State’s leading consulting resource for fueling logistics industry growth and global competitiveness. For over a decade, he directly assisted hundreds of companies to overcome challenges and capitalize on opportunities related to the movement of freight. During this time, Siplon was also appointed to concurrently serve the State of Georgia as Director of the larger Centers of Innovation Program, in which he provided executive leadership and vision for all six strategic industry-focused Centers. As a frequently requested keynote speaker, Siplon is called upon to address a range of audiences on unique aspects of technology, workforce, and logistics. This often includes topics of global and domestic logistics trends, supply chain visibility, collaboration, and strategic planning. He has also been quoted as an industry expert in publications such as Forbes, Journal of Commerce, Fortune, NPR, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, American Express, DC Velocity, Area Development Magazine, Site Selection Magazine, Inbound Logistics, Modern Material Handling, and is frequently a live special guest on SiriusXM’s Road Dog Radio Show. Siplon is an active industry participant, recognized by DC Velocity Magazine as a “2012 Logistics Rainmaker” which annually identifies the top-ten logistics professionals in the Nation; and named a “Pro to Know” by Supply & Demand Executive Magazine in 2014. Siplon was also selected by Georgia Trend Magazine as one of the “Top 100 Most Influential Georgians” for 2013, 2014, and 2015. He also serves various industry leadership roles at both the State and Federal level. Governor Nathan Deal nominated Siplon to represent Georgia on a National Supply Chain Competitiveness Advisory Committee, where he was appointed to a two-year term by the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and was then appointed to serve as its vice-chairman. At the State level, he was selected by then-Governor Sonny Perdue to serve as lead consultant on the Commission for New Georgia’s Freight and Logistics Task Force. In this effort, Siplon led a Private Sector Advisory Committee with invited executives from a range of private sector stakeholders including UPS, Coca-Cola, The Home Depot, Delta Airlines, Georgia Pacific, CSX, and Norfolk Southern. Siplon honorably served a combined 12 years in the United States Marine Corps and the United States Air Force. During this time, he led the integration of encryption techniques and deployed cryptographic devices for tactically secure voice and data platforms in critical ground-to-air communication systems. This service included support for all branches of the Department of Defense, multiple federal security agencies, and aiding NASA with multiple Space Shuttle launches. Originally from New York, Siplon received both a bachelor’s and master’s degree in electrical and computer engineering with a focus on digital signal processing from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He earned an associate’s degree in advanced electronic systems from the Air Force College and completed multiple military leadership academies in both the Marines and Air Force. Siplon currently lives in Cumming, Georgia (north of Atlanta), with his wife Jan, and two children Thomas (19) and Lily (15).
Host, Logistics with Purpose
Kristi Porter is VP of Sales and Marketing at Vector Global Logistics, a company that is changing the world through supply chain. In her role, she oversees all marketing efforts and supports the sales team in doing what they do best. In addition to this role, she is the Chief Do-Gooder at Signify, which assists nonprofits and social impact companies through copywriting and marketing strategy consulting. She has almost 20 years of professional experience, and loves every opportunity to help people do more good.
Host, Logistics with Purpose
Kevin Brown is the Director of Business Development for Vector Global Logistics. He has a dedicated interest in Major Account Management, Enterprise Sales, and Corporate Leadership. He offers 25 years of exceptional experience and superior performance in the sales of Logistics, Supply Chain, and Transportation Management. Kevin is a dynamic, high-impact, sales executive and corporate leader who has consistently exceeded corporate goals. He effectively coordinates multiple resources to solution sell large complex opportunities while focusing on corporate level contacts across the enterprise. His specialties include targeting and securing key accounts by analyzing customer’s current business processes and developing solutions to meet their corporate goals. Connect with Kevin on LinkedIn.
Host, Supply Chain Now en Espanol
Sofia Rivas Herrera is a Mexican Industrial Engineer from Tecnologico de Monterrey class 2019. Upon graduation, she earned a scholarship to study MIT’s Graduate Certificate in Logistics and Supply Chain Management and graduated as one of the Top 3 performers of her class in 2020. She also has a multicultural background due to her international academic experiences at Singapore Management University and Kühne Logistics University in Hamburg. Sofia self-identifies as a Supply Chain enthusiast & ambassador sharing her passion for the field in her daily life.
Host, Logistics with Purpose
Jose Manuel Irarrazaval es parte del equipo de Vector Global Logistics Chile. José Manuel es un gerente experimentado con experiencia en finanzas corporativas, fusiones y adquisiciones, financiamiento y reestructuración, inversión directa y financiera, tanto en Chile como en el exterior. José Manuel tiene su MBA de la Universidad de Pennsylvania- The Wharton School. Conéctese con Jose Manuel en LinkedIn.
Host, Supply Chain Now en Espanol
Demo Perez started his career in 1997 in the industry by chance when a relative asked him for help for two just weeks putting together an operation for FedEx Express at the Colon Free Zone, an area where he was never been but accepted the challenge. Worked in all roles possible from a truck driver to currier to a sales representative, helped the brand introduction, market share growth and recognition in the Colon Free Zone, at the end of 1999 had the chance to meet and have a chat with Fred Smith ( FedEx CEO), joined another company in 2018 who took over the FedEx operations as Operations and sales manager, in 2004 accepted the challenge from his company to leave the FedEx operations and business to take over the operation and business of DHL Express, his major competitor and rival so couldn’t say no, by changing completely its operation model in the Free Zone. In 2005 started his first entrepreneurial journey by quitting his job and joining two friends to start a Freight Forwarding company. After 8 months was recruited back by his company LSP with the General Manager role with the challenge of growing the company and make it fully capable warehousing 3PL. By 2009 joined CSCMP and WERC and started his journey of learning and growing his international network and high-level learning. In 2012 for the first time joined a local association ( the Panama Maritime Chamber) and worked in the country’s first Logistics Strategy plan, joined and lead other associations ending as president of the Panama Logistics Council in 2017. By finishing his professional mission at LSP with a company that was 8 times the size it was when accepted the role as GM with so many jobs generated and several young professionals coached, having great financial results, took the decision to move forward and start his own business from scratch by the end of 2019. with a friend and colleague co-founded IPL Group a company that started as a boutique 3PL and now is gearing up for the post-Covid era by moving to the big leagues.
Host, Supply Chain Now
The founder of Logistics Executive Group, Kim Winter delivers 40 years of executive leadership experience spanning Executive Search & Recruitment, Leadership Development, Executive Coaching, Corporate Advisory, Motivational Speaking, Trade Facilitation and across the Supply Chain, Logistics, 3PL, E-commerce, Life Science, Cold Chain, FMCG, Retail, Maritime, Defence, Aviation, Resources, and Industrial sectors. Operating from the company’s global offices, he is a regular contributor of thought leadership to industry and media, is a professional Master of Ceremonies, and is frequently invited to chair international events.
He is a Board member of over a dozen companies throughout APAC, India, and the Middle East, a New Zealand citizen, he holds formal resident status in Australia and the UAE, and is the Australia & New Zealand representative for the UAE Government-owned Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA), the Middle East’s largest Economic Free Zone.
A triathlete and ex-professional rugby player, Kim is a qualified (IECL Sydney) executive coach and the Founder / Chairman of the successful not for profit humanitarian organization, Oasis Africa (www. oasisafrica.org.au), which has provided freedom from poverty through education to over 8000 mainly orphaned children in East Africa’s slums. Kim holds an MBA and BA from Massey & Victoria Universities (NZ).
Host, Logistics with Purpose
Nick Roemer has had a very diverse and extensive career within design and sales over the last 15 years stretching from China, Dubai, Germany, Holland, UK, and the USA. In the last 5 years, Nick has developed a hawk's eye for sustainable tech and the human-centric marketing and sales procedures that come with it. With his far-reaching and strong network within the logistics industry, Nick has been able to open new avenues and routes to market within major industries in the USA and the UAE. Nick lives by the ethos, “Give more than you take." His professional mission is to make the logistics industry leaner, cleaner and greener.
Sales Support Intern
Alex is pursuing a Marketing degree and a Certificate in Legal Studies at the University of Georgia. As a dual citizen of both the US and UK; Alex has studied abroad at University College London and is passionate about travel and international business. Through her coursework at the Terry College of Business, Alex has gained valuable skills in digital marketing, analytics, and professional selling. She joined Supply Chain Now as a Sales Support Intern where she assists the team by prospecting and qualifying new business partners.